{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30bc015c-1560-4d3d-8c22-a3d7f08b1a26", "symbol": "ILDR", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII INNOVATION LEADERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.876, "architecture_energy": 22.296, "architecture_maturity": 55.774, "architecture_confidence": 89.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.92, "rotation_up": 34.48, "upward_expansion": 58.88, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 25.57, "downward_expansion": 17.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.548867, 37.675136, 37.362674, 36.11709 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.24, "trend_reference": 34.688089, "distance_from_trend": 0.131224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.703629, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.469463, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.843265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.248489, "excess_performance": 0.122864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.469463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003602, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038433, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.248489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.503953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 283666, "relative_activity": 1.223274, "balance": 1.503953, "dry_up": 1.157576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075286, "annualized_volatility": 0.258159, "from_high_reference": -0.042693, "from_low_reference": 0.391978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.688089, "fair_value_reference": 26.703629, "structural_low": 28.1901, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026817, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002172, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.042834, "worst_return": -0.032937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037302, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14834, "worst_return": -0.1684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.168016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073794, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.315724, "worst_return": 0.101456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.284757, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.449211, "worst_return": 0.120303, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067347, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031307, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040177, "active": false }, { 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"2026-06-26", "close": 37.36, "volume": 469204, "typical_volume": 262004.8, "trend": 33.822692, "fair_value": 25.958493, "relative_strength": 5.387509, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.541947, "energy": 48.148612, "activity_lines": [ 38.08, 37.832545, 35.841087, 34.785542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.239, "volume": 126333, "typical_volume": 241191.4, "trend": 33.983992, "fair_value": 26.089176, "relative_strength": 5.433973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.430636, "energy": 45.586291, "activity_lines": [ 38.053, 38.002545, 36.229469, 35.070465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.8, "volume": 378035, "typical_volume": 240048.5, "trend": 34.184326, "fair_value": 26.218223, "relative_strength": 5.384445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.913947, "energy": 45.558021, "activity_lines": [ 38.317733, 38.217291, 36.638428, 35.381175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.91, "volume": 319819, "typical_volume": 240818.6, "trend": 34.312726, "fair_value": 26.336377, "relative_strength": 1.780971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.670195, "energy": 31.525153, "activity_lines": [ 37.879133, 38.0184, 36.832005, 35.557025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.2706, "volume": 262973, "typical_volume": 223963.05, "trend": 34.406079, "fair_value": 26.448497, "relative_strength": 0.588416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.958537, "energy": 24.024189, "activity_lines": [ 37.282067, 37.699618, 36.937116, 35.683339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.4003, "volume": 207267, "typical_volume": 225194.35, "trend": 34.511089, "fair_value": 26.565709, "relative_strength": -0.163303, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.253895, "energy": 17.833439, "activity_lines": [ 36.910193, 37.417316, 37.028672, 35.811999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.24, "volume": 283666, "typical_volume": 231890.8, "trend": 34.688089, "fair_value": 26.703629, "relative_strength": 3.843265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.876493, "energy": 22.295643, "activity_lines": [ 37.548867, 37.675136, 37.362674, 36.11709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }