{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30bfe2ca-78ad-4b5b-93af-625e4df9562b", "symbol": "DG", "name": "Dollar General Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.409, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.402, "architecture_energy": 19.239, "architecture_maturity": 9.484, "architecture_confidence": 66.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.83, "rotation_up": 42.96, "upward_expansion": 36.18, "deceleration": 33.37, "rotation_down": 15.34, "downward_expansion": 42.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.217333, 121.357066, 117.454017, 119.851418 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 126.59, "trend_reference": 125.65387, "distance_from_trend": 0.00745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.970349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.982865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132587, "excess_performance": -0.258211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011097, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090436, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8623390, "relative_activity": 0.566277, "balance": 1.090436, "dry_up": 0.736692, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079166, "annualized_volatility": 0.415614, "from_high_reference": -0.196068, "from_low_reference": 0.342918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.65387, "fair_value_reference": 110.970349, "structural_low": 99.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022319, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000585, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.258928, "worst_return": -0.075779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.12206, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.084473, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.432798, "worst_return": -0.166755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035192, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.35131, "worst_return": -0.305194, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.620359, "energy": 16.504574, "activity_lines": [ 120.520985, 116.49397, 115.519595, 120.422639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.23, "volume": 10105232, "typical_volume": 16403062.35, "trend": 126.454299, "fair_value": 111.351833, "relative_strength": -9.109262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.025423, "energy": 15.852507, "activity_lines": [ 119.996692, 117.262274, 115.458857, 119.785835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.05, "volume": 10007101, "typical_volume": 15737616.1, "trend": 126.169156, "fair_value": 111.153754, "relative_strength": -2.523024, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.745877, "energy": 17.793944, "activity_lines": [ 122.455271, 119.546034, 116.468457, 119.824267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.59, "volume": 8623390, "typical_volume": 15228229.5, "trend": 125.65387, "fair_value": 110.970349, "relative_strength": -5.982865, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.401636, "energy": 19.238853, "activity_lines": [ 124.217333, 121.357066, 117.454017, 119.851418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }