{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30c085ad-39fe-4345-9ffe-ef9a1769b9c9", "symbol": "LOMA", "name": "Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.798, "architecture_energy": 15.513, "architecture_maturity": 22.892, "architecture_confidence": 61.944, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.02, "rotation_up": 17.33, "upward_expansion": 13.27, "deceleration": 66.21, "rotation_down": 47.93, "downward_expansion": 35.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.089333, 11.351636, 11.366, 11.23357 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.44, "trend_reference": 11.165667, "distance_from_trend": -0.064991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.379038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.496069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074468, "excess_performance": -0.200093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2296830, "relative_activity": 1.18767, "balance": 0.750918, "dry_up": 0.922697, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11387, "annualized_volatility": 0.391683, "from_high_reference": -0.209085, "from_low_reference": 0.482955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.165667, "fair_value_reference": 9.379038, "structural_low": 9.5743, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002594, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.207892, "worst_return": -0.292444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001152, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.226331, "worst_return": -0.05675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.136888, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.046516, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.835799, "worst_return": -0.013489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.317996, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.184394, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.677515, "worst_return": 0.0194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.39807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.313333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112245, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.45, "volume": 1847685, "typical_volume": 1290935.0, "trend": 6.128794, "fair_value": 4.84483, "relative_strength": 0.40397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"close": 11.4, "volume": 1885042, "typical_volume": 1972707.35, "trend": 11.279667, "fair_value": 9.322436, "relative_strength": -2.126396, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.093444, "energy": 4.655313, "activity_lines": [ 11.442667, 11.602, 11.413905, 11.271806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.48, "volume": 1509744, "typical_volume": 1946542.7, "trend": 11.233, "fair_value": 9.354231, "relative_strength": -2.084725, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.83133, "energy": 13.815253, "activity_lines": [ 11.436667, 11.576182, 11.443, 11.284731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.44, "volume": 2296830, "typical_volume": 1933895.8, "trend": 11.165667, "fair_value": 9.379038, "relative_strength": -13.496069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.797621, "energy": 15.51328, "activity_lines": [ 11.089333, 11.351636, 11.366, 11.23357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }