{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30c61dbe-b5e9-4b8b-a0b0-4a79672e3b50", "symbol": "002414", "name": "Wuhan Guide Infrared Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.536, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.791, "architecture_energy": 10.024, "architecture_maturity": 37.102, "architecture_confidence": 69.67, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.71, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 22.95, "deceleration": 35.69, "rotation_down": 33.0, "downward_expansion": 56.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.650667, 13.534364, 13.552143, 13.768452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.06, "trend_reference": 14.384333, "distance_from_trend": -0.022548, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.526985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.377948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152502, "excess_performance": -0.159901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022548, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003208, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475808, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021042, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 465029353, "relative_activity": 1.340018, "balance": 0.757751, "dry_up": 1.941837, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09547, "annualized_volatility": 0.476188, "from_high_reference": -0.244898, "from_low_reference": 0.328922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.384333, "fair_value_reference": 9.526985, "structural_low": 12.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021803, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.00567, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.252059, "worst_return": -0.157994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0217, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015016, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.171986, "worst_return": -0.245902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075815, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004764, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.208406, "worst_return": -0.308122, "sufficient": true 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.70465, "energy": 20.442099, "activity_lines": [ 13.486, 13.352727, 13.524571, 13.917634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.36, "volume": 784291671, "typical_volume": 315213046.55, "trend": 14.489, "fair_value": 9.46042, "relative_strength": 5.556474, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.83005, "energy": 12.445537, "activity_lines": [ 13.787333, 13.534, 13.595619, 13.911914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.61, "volume": 616237436, "typical_volume": 333598590.75, "trend": 14.404667, "fair_value": 9.488096, "relative_strength": -5.93027, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.675005, "energy": 20.942466, "activity_lines": [ 13.458667, 13.390182, 13.501238, 13.790688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.06, "volume": 465029353, "typical_volume": 347032122.85, "trend": 14.384333, "fair_value": 9.526985, "relative_strength": -0.377948, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.791259, "energy": 10.023845, "activity_lines": [ 13.650667, 13.534364, 13.552143, 13.768452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }