{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30c64aca-fd7d-4da7-852a-745f503db0dd", "symbol": "5CF", "name": "OKP Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.617, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.921, "architecture_energy": 10.124, "architecture_maturity": 12.044, "architecture_confidence": 52.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.45, "rotation_up": 20.29, "upward_expansion": 15.77, "deceleration": 60.71, "rotation_down": 41.02, "downward_expansion": 33.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.770667, 0.774364, 0.783365, 0.77677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.785, "trend_reference": 0.771405, "distance_from_trend": 0.017624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.372394, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.107985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.454982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019314, "excess_performance": -0.135521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.107985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.547704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2693500, "relative_activity": 0.454015, "balance": 0.834081, "dry_up": 0.372866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061244, "annualized_volatility": 0.330546, "from_high_reference": -0.097701, "from_low_reference": 0.483371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.771405, "fair_value_reference": 0.372394, "structural_low": 0.619025, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021619, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.042197, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.458338, "worst_return": -0.037636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098454, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.082333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.805007, "worst_return": -0.025641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.334312, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.317187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.062859, "worst_return": -0.048857, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.838062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", 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"volume": 1982600, "typical_volume": 6033195.0, "trend": 0.763889, "fair_value": 0.359786, "relative_strength": -7.574407, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.388151, "energy": 14.667526, "activity_lines": [ 0.768333, 0.783909, 0.78176, 0.775395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.77, "volume": 2331100, "typical_volume": 5953905.0, "trend": 0.766531, "fair_value": 0.363988, "relative_strength": -5.282055, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.282917, "energy": 12.974953, "activity_lines": [ 0.766, 0.779, 0.782108, 0.775789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.765, "volume": 1841100, "typical_volume": 5936575.0, "trend": 0.768263, "fair_value": 0.368095, "relative_strength": -6.640532, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.318162, "energy": 13.358246, "activity_lines": [ 0.765, 0.774364, 0.781842, 0.77569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.785, "volume": 2693500, "typical_volume": 5932620.0, "trend": 0.771405, "fair_value": 0.372394, "relative_strength": -5.454982, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.920772, "energy": 10.124081, "activity_lines": [ 0.770667, 0.774364, 0.783365, 0.77677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }