{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30da0762-5f9f-40e0-9f07-07360d731d76", "symbol": "EX38", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.743, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.822, "architecture_energy": 18.772, "architecture_maturity": 21.973, "architecture_confidence": 82.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.42, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 53.06, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 32.36, "downward_expansion": 23.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.676667, 80.488182, 81.715476, 81.002968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.650002, "trend_reference": 79.858, "distance_from_trend": 0.060007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.05516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.571709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101496, "excess_performance": -0.07275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409538, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314496, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.314496, "dry_up": 0.28756, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045818, "annualized_volatility": 0.282305, "from_high_reference": -0.048556, "from_low_reference": 0.677899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.858, "fair_value_reference": 60.05516, "structural_low": 67.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005324, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006322, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.112034, "worst_return": -0.069888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030649, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.044877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187993, "worst_return": -0.011026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05956, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.118798, "worst_return": -0.044633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066011, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.149103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02659, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.248702, "active": false }, { 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[ 81.933334, 83.457454, 82.260333, 80.700387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 78.349998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1116.8, "trend": 78.217666, "fair_value": 59.412788, "relative_strength": -5.801699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.736865, "energy": 23.090946, "activity_lines": [ 80.320666, 82.474545, 82.023047, 80.741978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1001.75, "trend": 78.557333, "fair_value": 59.542788, "relative_strength": -7.844015, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.852414, "energy": 41.228325, "activity_lines": [ 78.211333, 80.980363, 81.506095, 80.555032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.970001, "volume": 325, "typical_volume": 713.65, "trend": 78.980333, "fair_value": 59.688686, "relative_strength": -4.877828, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.240377, "energy": 32.220067, "activity_lines": [ 78.086667, 80.308909, 81.37219, 80.581656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 376.15, "trend": 79.389333, "fair_value": 59.851506, "relative_strength": -3.589327, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.252819, "energy": 26.745047, "activity_lines": [ 78.686667, 79.952364, 81.346667, 80.66357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.650002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 282.55, "trend": 79.858, "fair_value": 60.05516, "relative_strength": -1.571709, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.82174, "energy": 18.77183, "activity_lines": [ 80.676667, 80.488182, 81.715476, 81.002968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }