{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30e6cb8a-344f-4150-8089-c0dc5121da57", "symbol": "GSN", "name": "Great Southern Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.497, "architecture_energy": 20.312, "architecture_maturity": 97.311, "architecture_confidence": 64.272, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.36, "rotation_up": 28.87, "upward_expansion": 26.91, "deceleration": 52.95, "rotation_down": 18.72, "downward_expansion": 48.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022467, 0.021709, 0.021429, 0.023387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.027183, "distance_from_trend": -0.153893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.850881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.361111, "excess_performance": -0.424817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007606, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085919, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1681061, "relative_activity": 0.260594, "balance": 0.874754, "dry_up": 1.440298, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078595, "annualized_volatility": 0.536969, "from_high_reference": -0.574074, "from_low_reference": 0.352941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027183, "fair_value_reference": 0.023176, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011674, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.04987, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.382353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.020409, 0.021588, 0.024502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.022, "volume": 12664805, "typical_volume": 6095879.05, "trend": 0.028417, "fair_value": 0.023183, "relative_strength": -23.493287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.214356, "energy": 28.654729, "activity_lines": [ 0.021533, 0.020764, 0.021405, 0.024052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 10726774, "typical_volume": 6523931.9, "trend": 0.027883, "fair_value": 0.023183, "relative_strength": -21.582547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.266313, "energy": 25.408913, "activity_lines": [ 0.022067, 0.021273, 0.021388, 0.023702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 1681061, "typical_volume": 6450885.9, "trend": 0.027183, "fair_value": 0.023176, "relative_strength": -23.850881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.497289, "energy": 20.312349, "activity_lines": [ 0.022467, 0.021709, 0.021429, 0.023387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }