{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30e852cb-fbb7-4045-be61-37af7196169f", "symbol": "SP5C", "name": "Amundi Core S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.749, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.603, "architecture_energy": 65.525, "architecture_maturity": 65.957, "architecture_confidence": 75.838, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.47, "rotation_up": 57.19, "upward_expansion": 83.94, "deceleration": 66.63, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 10.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 548.500004, 545.820006, 540.637858, 529.983117 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 562.200012, "trend_reference": 517.856664, "distance_from_trend": 0.085629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 451.253781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245862, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.858658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131187, "excess_performance": 0.048304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.251971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22260, "relative_activity": 1.923966, "balance": 1.251971, "dry_up": 1.704236, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016939, "annualized_volatility": 0.134477, "from_high_reference": -0.004956, "from_low_reference": 0.225771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 517.856664, "fair_value_reference": 451.253781, "structural_low": 463.049988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004009, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.020666, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.021187, "worst_return": -0.010281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058027, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.07505, "worst_return": 0.022318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.099043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033809, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.099043, "worst_return": 0.099043, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 544.346679, 543.518189, 533.575238, 523.62473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 540.200012, "volume": 19718, "typical_volume": 12851.05, "trend": 514.496664, "fair_value": 449.550427, "relative_strength": -1.66733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.810284, "energy": 60.475338, "activity_lines": [ 543.280013, 542.978191, 535.484763, 525.37344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 539.599976, "volume": 11125, "typical_volume": 10989.55, "trend": 515.853331, "fair_value": 450.313559, "relative_strength": -1.851272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.027127, "energy": 48.802528, "activity_lines": [ 542.293335, 542.309095, 537.121904, 526.993009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 562.200012, "volume": 22260, "typical_volume": 11569.85, "trend": 517.856664, "fair_value": 451.253781, "relative_strength": 0.858658, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.603412, "energy": 65.524801, "activity_lines": [ 548.500004, 545.820006, 540.637858, 529.983117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }