{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30f16463-af4b-4502-b427-b8ac4e81e3af", "symbol": "BTBT", "name": "Bit Digital Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.605, "architecture_energy": 60.614, "architecture_maturity": 16.982, "architecture_confidence": 78.848, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.68, "rotation_up": 8.93, "upward_expansion": 11.96, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 75.07, "downward_expansion": 89.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.382667, 1.533273, 1.642286, 1.646957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.698, "distance_from_trend": -0.187279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.633462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.475975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.866137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233333, "excess_performance": -0.420787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115625, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.475975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106404143, "relative_activity": 0.916236, "balance": 1.176162, "dry_up": 1.071748, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.262263, "annualized_volatility": 0.729284, "from_high_reference": -0.696703, "from_low_reference": 0.169492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.698, "fair_value_reference": 2.633462, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.019544, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.075821, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 2.117229, "worst_return": -0.362126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.073378, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.050993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.015986, "worst_return": -0.528302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040496, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.17465, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 2.483051, "worst_return": -0.722127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 141221352, "typical_volume": 112781664.4, "trend": 1.772, "fair_value": 2.681603, "relative_strength": -44.876383, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.15772, "energy": 24.738321, "activity_lines": [ 1.657333, 1.753909, 1.730357, 1.723495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.37, "volume": 119501681, "typical_volume": 113507995.65, "trend": 1.749333, "fair_value": 2.663269, "relative_strength": -44.129437, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.254454, "energy": 36.723945, "activity_lines": [ 1.520667, 1.674, 1.70131, 1.697559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 130729223, "typical_volume": 115644932.0, "trend": 1.725, "fair_value": 2.647564, "relative_strength": -45.991655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.154392, "energy": 57.402844, "activity_lines": [ 1.417333, 1.591091, 1.667738, 1.669215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 106404143, "typical_volume": 116131830.1, "trend": 1.698, "fair_value": 2.633462, "relative_strength": -44.866137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.604587, "energy": 60.614437, "activity_lines": [ 1.382667, 1.533273, 1.642286, 1.646957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }