{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3100f607-cbb2-4fe0-af4c-cc187663f5e4", "symbol": "UTES", "name": "ETFIS SERIES TRUST I VIRTUS REAVES UTILITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 50.612, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.119, "architecture_energy": 36.724, "architecture_maturity": 43.961, "architecture_confidence": 61.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.33, "rotation_up": 21.72, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 55.67, "downward_expansion": 50.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.704, 79.869356, 80.323306, 80.533519 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.54, "trend_reference": 80.526696, "distance_from_trend": -0.049508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.160024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.576955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000157, "excess_performance": -0.125781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15577, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.308786, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 823521, "relative_activity": 1.018736, "balance": 1.308786, "dry_up": 0.822101, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049976, "annualized_volatility": 0.242384, "from_high_reference": -0.126465, "from_low_reference": 0.030275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.526696, "fair_value_reference": 64.160024, "structural_low": 75.125, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.002523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008842, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.113852, "worst_return": -0.083274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007733, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.051414, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137345, "worst_return": -0.086917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.092153, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031505, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268435, 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"relative_strength": -9.256631, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.392723, "energy": 14.504852, "activity_lines": [ 81.310157, 80.938084, 80.938613, 80.901263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.03, "volume": 516504, "typical_volume": 797120.55, "trend": 80.675073, "fair_value": 63.719691, "relative_strength": -6.187997, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.705467, "energy": 17.486161, "activity_lines": [ 81.400667, 81.222878, 81.045407, 80.994869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.57, "volume": 891379, "typical_volume": 806009.25, "trend": 80.585851, "fair_value": 63.943844, "relative_strength": -11.850621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.82404, "energy": 16.586769, "activity_lines": [ 80.0, 80.605623, 80.724542, 80.794541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.54, "volume": 823521, "typical_volume": 808375.6, "trend": 80.526696, "fair_value": 64.160024, "relative_strength": -15.576955, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.11902, "energy": 36.724119, "activity_lines": [ 78.704, 79.869356, 80.323306, 80.533519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }