{ "ticker": { "uuid": "310370e9-1632-444a-a440-60404d2716b1", "symbol": "EVPL", "name": "everplay group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.189, "architecture_energy": 42.331, "architecture_maturity": 90.323, "architecture_confidence": 83.914, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.02, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 5.54, "deceleration": 59.36, "rotation_down": 50.42, "downward_expansion": 76.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.4, 230.963636, 242.146925, 250.065301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 236.0, "trend_reference": 265.355144, "distance_from_trend": -0.110626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 276.973827, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.714209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.197224, "excess_performance": -0.248459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113949, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 204.986011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.007196, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.347656, "worst_return": -0.489855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.122626, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.207133, "worst_return": -0.29078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.148695, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.182889, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.361702, 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261.807011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 223.0, "volume": 2625790, "typical_volume": 1761604.7, "trend": 275.052916, "fair_value": 278.84448, "relative_strength": -34.332325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.415511, "energy": 79.865133, "activity_lines": [ 228.433333, 238.526933, 248.313449, 258.248805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 217.5, "volume": 1905988, "typical_volume": 1750052.1, "trend": 271.370329, "fair_value": 278.123711, "relative_strength": -35.913367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.627419, "energy": 75.603507, "activity_lines": [ 223.9, 232.954545, 244.785815, 254.535713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 234.5, "volume": 4523640, "typical_volume": 1901551.7, "trend": 268.421064, "fair_value": 277.543961, "relative_strength": -30.874363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.459697, "energy": 50.341434, "activity_lines": [ 226.633333, 231.490909, 243.255703, 252.156982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.0, "volume": 1121129, "typical_volume": 1883123.6, "trend": 265.355144, "fair_value": 276.973827, "relative_strength": -29.714209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.188983, "energy": 42.33094, "activity_lines": [ 229.4, 230.963636, 242.146925, 250.065301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }