{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3109e17b-9411-4645-a4ab-d53087595254", "symbol": "SQM", "name": "Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.384, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.838, "architecture_energy": 52.701, "architecture_maturity": 7.778, "architecture_confidence": 84.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.61, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 65.3, "downward_expansion": 85.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.799333, 71.514364, 76.191494, 77.139142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 71.95, "trend_reference": 77.551075, "distance_from_trend": -0.072224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.81268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.745771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017914, "excess_performance": -0.10771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046512, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017914, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4805035, "relative_activity": 0.823876, "balance": 0.569674, "dry_up": 0.898132, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113466, "annualized_volatility": 0.47215, "from_high_reference": -0.257546, "from_low_reference": 0.796227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.551075, "fair_value_reference": 50.81268, "structural_low": 64.918683, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007946, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.024404, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.194524, "worst_return": -0.216403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038066, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.119487, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.237883, "worst_return": -0.262154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048858, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.154739, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.440459, "worst_return": -0.242243, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 50.774249, "relative_strength": -2.634642, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.454323, "energy": 53.991905, "activity_lines": [ 70.63, 73.685273, 78.097151, 78.188389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.06, "volume": 6086923, "typical_volume": 5790186.3, "trend": 77.605116, "fair_value": 50.76652, "relative_strength": -6.63759, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.950527, "energy": 63.452004, "activity_lines": [ 69.248667, 72.036, 76.895845, 77.503988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.95, "volume": 4805035, "typical_volume": 5832233.5, "trend": 77.551075, "fair_value": 50.81268, "relative_strength": -3.745771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.837775, "energy": 52.700757, "activity_lines": [ 69.799333, 71.514364, 76.191494, 77.139142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }