{ "ticker": { "uuid": "310c245c-2479-49fd-add9-b16ff1c93b52", "symbol": "300268", "name": "Joyvio Food Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.782, "architecture_energy": 48.518, "architecture_maturity": 38.643, "architecture_confidence": 89.295, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.48, "rotation_up": 20.4, "upward_expansion": 7.08, "deceleration": 58.62, "rotation_down": 54.58, "downward_expansion": 78.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.548667, 10.711455, 11.60219, 12.174624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.23, "trend_reference": 12.725, "distance_from_trend": -0.117485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.490962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.209931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089213, "excess_performance": -0.096613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10614872, "relative_activity": 1.254041, "balance": 0.256991, "dry_up": 1.395258, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111514, "annualized_volatility": 0.416433, "from_high_reference": -0.305074, "from_low_reference": 0.247778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.725, "fair_value_reference": 10.490962, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.063291, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03076, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.201943, "worst_return": -0.353343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106301, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.076913, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.367279, "worst_return": -0.362362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.190479, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.198051, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.045148, "worst_return": -0.37289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0369, "active": false 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11.59, "volume": 3820201, "typical_volume": 7436662.5, "trend": 13.162, "fair_value": 10.715705, "relative_strength": -17.957513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.246651, "energy": 80.17888, "activity_lines": [ 11.23, 11.925273, 12.736524, 12.973247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.9, "volume": 12594240, "typical_volume": 7668994.5, "trend": 13.062, "fair_value": 10.677051, "relative_strength": -19.536385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.74293, "energy": 79.90328, "activity_lines": [ 11.056, 11.622909, 12.512714, 12.827312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.39, "volume": 10744652, "typical_volume": 7957162.1, "trend": 12.991667, "fair_value": 10.633974, "relative_strength": -15.423809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.105213, "energy": 76.344803, "activity_lines": [ 10.810667, 11.283091, 12.253714, 12.654925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.48, "volume": 13699216, "typical_volume": 8241387.9, "trend": 12.877, "fair_value": 10.583077, "relative_strength": -22.703777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.862812, "energy": 64.787522, "activity_lines": [ 10.348, 10.851273, 11.927333, 12.428366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.49, "volume": 12182100, "typical_volume": 8341372.9, "trend": 12.776, "fair_value": 10.535449, "relative_strength": -12.871266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.303748, "energy": 55.36942, "activity_lines": [ 10.328667, 10.687818, 11.720476, 12.274366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.23, "volume": 10614872, "typical_volume": 8464532.9, "trend": 12.725, "fair_value": 10.490962, "relative_strength": -11.209931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.782193, "energy": 48.51791, "activity_lines": [ 10.548667, 10.711455, 11.60219, 12.174624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }