{ "ticker": { "uuid": "310e4efd-f50d-49b3-9d30-3fda2c81fde0", "symbol": "600684", "name": "Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.521, "architecture_energy": 43.616, "architecture_maturity": 98.094, "architecture_confidence": 91.331, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.4, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 37.01, "downward_expansion": 68.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.310667, 3.246, 3.50019, 3.814473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.39, "trend_reference": 4.178333, "distance_from_trend": -0.188672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.801603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.682485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.302469, "excess_performance": -0.259265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59878309, "relative_activity": 0.756433, "balance": 0.644607, "dry_up": 1.268885, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090311, "annualized_volatility": 0.312071, "from_high_reference": -0.488688, "from_low_reference": 0.17301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.178333, "fair_value_reference": 3.801603, "structural_low": 2.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003106, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.024437, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.324159, "worst_return": -0.19457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003283, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.176301, "worst_return": -0.233032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037327, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.195652, "worst_return": -0.302469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.1, "volume": 93189322, "typical_volume": 81847155.45, "trend": 4.290667, "fair_value": 3.800897, "relative_strength": -30.188963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.014597, "energy": 84.331504, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.239455, 3.681762, 3.988409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.2, "volume": 146513492, "typical_volume": 82063242.05, "trend": 4.244667, "fair_value": 3.800513, "relative_strength": -28.488447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.514284, "energy": 64.420254, "activity_lines": [ 3.127333, 3.201273, 3.598524, 3.918043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.46, "volume": 102192655, "typical_volume": 81558633.75, "trend": 4.210667, "fair_value": 3.801731, "relative_strength": -22.670326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.572662, "energy": 54.320993, "activity_lines": [ 3.245333, 3.227273, 3.549048, 3.867419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.39, "volume": 59878309, "typical_volume": 79158823.8, "trend": 4.178333, "fair_value": 3.801603, "relative_strength": -25.682485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.521425, "energy": 43.61611, "activity_lines": [ 3.310667, 3.246, 3.50019, 3.814473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }