{ "ticker": { "uuid": "310eeb79-2034-4d1e-9c1a-fd9322abf422", "symbol": "OUSA", "name": "ALPS - O SHARES U.S. QUALITY DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.536, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.731, "architecture_energy": 88.035, "architecture_maturity": 25.521, "architecture_confidence": 66.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.72, "rotation_up": 84.75, "upward_expansion": 97.46, "deceleration": 39.14, "rotation_down": 9.61, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.871262, 60.061716, 59.1801, 58.619335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.2169, "trend_reference": 58.200413, "distance_from_trend": 0.069011, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.54578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.267345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047163, "excess_performance": -0.078462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069011, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.919991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83320, "relative_activity": 0.689951, "balance": 1.919991, "dry_up": 0.855197, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020096, "annualized_volatility": 0.115293, "from_high_reference": -0.001975, "from_low_reference": 0.154996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.200413, "fair_value_reference": 51.54578, "structural_low": 54.387565, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012559, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.005229, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.044239, "worst_return": -0.079937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.024316, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030383, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.077207, "worst_return": -0.092833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061985, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.017597, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.110479, "worst_return": -0.094657, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 57.87587, "fair_value": 51.187201, "relative_strength": -3.556153, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.230061, "energy": 69.852374, "activity_lines": [ 59.350869, 58.952446, 58.274654, 58.04211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.673, "volume": 87547, "typical_volume": 124982.65, "trend": 57.938178, "fair_value": 51.294628, "relative_strength": -3.127013, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.27904, "energy": 72.481064, "activity_lines": [ 59.590677, 59.128328, 58.468824, 58.158054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.94, "volume": 64788, "typical_volume": 122428.95, "trend": 58.06886, "fair_value": 51.416788, "relative_strength": -2.04664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.878953, "energy": 79.726136, "activity_lines": [ 60.119803, 59.49731, 58.774674, 58.35172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.2169, "volume": 83320, "typical_volume": 120762.2, "trend": 58.200413, "fair_value": 51.54578, "relative_strength": -3.267345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.730805, "energy": 88.034788, "activity_lines": [ 60.871262, 60.061716, 59.1801, 58.619335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }