{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3111d61f-8887-46ab-aec0-d987a8608e25", "symbol": "XAU", "name": "Goldmoney Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 90.471, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.073, "architecture_energy": 33.081, "architecture_maturity": 42.001, "architecture_confidence": 56.793, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.16, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 13.29, "deceleration": 48.97, "rotation_down": 57.21, "downward_expansion": 57.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.337333, 14.585818, 15.063619, 15.30157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.1, "trend_reference": 15.060667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.944615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.785709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125299, "excess_performance": 0.004878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42700, "relative_activity": 1.097827, "balance": 0.35183, "dry_up": 0.825942, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115325, "annualized_volatility": 0.310684, "from_high_reference": -0.267532, "from_low_reference": 14099.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.060667, "fair_value_reference": 9.944615, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031785, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026084, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.52682, "worst_return": -0.072907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008106, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.459046, "worst_return": -0.102868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022005, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004881, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.394239, "worst_return": -0.146597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062802, 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29000, "typical_volume": 56555.0, "trend": 14.658, "fair_value": 9.853269, "relative_strength": 3.622456, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.07291, "energy": 12.427611, "activity_lines": [ 14.727333, 15.028909, 15.475191, 15.396366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.39, "volume": 39800, "typical_volume": 47455.0, "trend": 14.794333, "fair_value": 9.883269, "relative_strength": 1.712498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.251917, "energy": 23.080586, "activity_lines": [ 14.574667, 14.869273, 15.33281, 15.379075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.42, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 43285.0, "trend": 14.927, "fair_value": 9.91359, "relative_strength": 1.895763, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.02726, "energy": 23.185048, "activity_lines": [ 14.496667, 14.743273, 15.207238, 15.354925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 42700, "typical_volume": 38895.0, "trend": 15.060667, "fair_value": 9.944615, "relative_strength": -3.785709, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.072834, "energy": 33.081453, "activity_lines": [ 14.337333, 14.585818, 15.063619, 15.30157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }