{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3114b56a-b336-47b6-9816-899adf559de8", "symbol": "83151", "name": "Premia China STAR50 ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.191, "architecture_energy": 26.896, "architecture_maturity": 63.814, "architecture_confidence": 94.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.12, "rotation_up": 24.25, "upward_expansion": 57.48, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 39.06, "downward_expansion": 21.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.595333, 11.023545, 10.747071, 10.266097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.59, "trend_reference": 9.758833, "distance_from_trend": 0.085171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.712538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.577645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.461948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217941, "excess_performance": 0.251523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.577645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.154619, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.401811, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 548000, "relative_activity": 1.667935, "balance": 1.401811, "dry_up": 2.519403, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102419, "annualized_volatility": 0.45551, "from_high_reference": -0.216136, "from_low_reference": 0.654687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.758833, "fair_value_reference": 6.712538, "structural_low": 7.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000249, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032001, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093108, "worst_return": -0.104988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072105, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177494, "worst_return": -0.132777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033079, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239471, "worst_return": -0.150228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.236668, "energy": 71.2021, "activity_lines": [ 10.773333, 10.473545, 9.723381, 9.438301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.34, "volume": 296800, "typical_volume": 179730.0, "trend": 9.210667, "fair_value": 6.522955, "relative_strength": 62.579403, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.553916, "energy": 74.427074, "activity_lines": [ 11.316, 10.880909, 10.013571, 9.649247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.03, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 182730.0, "trend": 9.340833, "fair_value": 6.559782, "relative_strength": 51.606344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.21494, "energy": 84.518653, "activity_lines": [ 11.659333, 11.165545, 10.256881, 9.83114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.65, "volume": 556600, "typical_volume": 206390.0, "trend": 9.486833, "fair_value": 6.600487, "relative_strength": 51.653287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.21207, "energy": 90.76822, "activity_lines": [ 12.121333, 11.505636, 10.544881, 10.044634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.42, "volume": 1625200, "typical_volume": 273510.0, "trend": 9.565667, "fair_value": 6.628212, "relative_strength": 21.762086, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.172738, "energy": 58.207477, "activity_lines": [ 11.673333, 11.384182, 10.603333, 10.104839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.85, "volume": 655200, "typical_volume": 283980.0, "trend": 9.652667, "fair_value": 6.658628, "relative_strength": 23.51237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.771781, "energy": 43.165805, "activity_lines": [ 11.352, 11.333273, 10.696571, 10.187699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.985, "volume": 482600, "typical_volume": 305820.0, "trend": 9.707167, "fair_value": 6.682955, "relative_strength": 8.864381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.90871, "energy": 19.598264, "activity_lines": [ 10.794333, 11.115091, 10.69681, 10.20914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.59, "volume": 548000, "typical_volume": 328550.0, "trend": 9.758833, "fair_value": 6.712538, "relative_strength": 15.461948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.190595, "energy": 26.896279, "activity_lines": [ 10.595333, 11.023545, 10.747071, 10.266097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }