{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31189abb-d686-4952-8996-3a6c2cadfc46", "symbol": "5013", "name": "New Best Wire Industrial Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.598, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.387, "architecture_energy": 41.111, "architecture_maturity": 42.926, "architecture_confidence": 91.184, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.34, "rotation_up": 22.19, "upward_expansion": 5.06, "deceleration": 57.33, "rotation_down": 52.33, "downward_expansion": 78.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.243333, 26.338182, 26.928571, 27.552151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.549999, "trend_reference": 28.403333, "distance_from_trend": -0.030043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.255606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089425, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.97486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067682, "excess_performance": -0.509054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089425, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020861, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038184, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.617321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103134, "relative_activity": 1.615963, "balance": 0.617321, "dry_up": 1.288216, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051236, "annualized_volatility": 0.182539, "from_high_reference": -0.152308, "from_low_reference": 0.133745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.403333, "fair_value_reference": 30.255606, "structural_low": 24.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001969, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014736, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.092453, "worst_return": -0.066547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006079, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026015, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.101798, "worst_return": -0.104377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031987, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025588, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084942, "worst_return": -0.097264, "sufficient": true 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30.550654, "relative_strength": -36.876766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.597729, "energy": 48.469883, "activity_lines": [ 27.67, 27.961818, 28.622857, 28.906667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 13706, "typical_volume": 61214.9, "trend": 29.045, "fair_value": 30.531083, "relative_strength": -38.542881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.011756, "energy": 35.100386, "activity_lines": [ 27.743333, 27.857273, 28.494048, 28.824624 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.9, "volume": 71404, "typical_volume": 61571.95, "trend": 28.99, "fair_value": 30.499363, "relative_strength": -37.300943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.882213, "energy": 41.738384, "activity_lines": [ 27.48, 27.623636, 28.294286, 28.686237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.799999, "volume": 86036, "typical_volume": 64574.45, "trend": 28.915, "fair_value": 30.465553, "relative_strength": -39.800302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.238034, "energy": 49.440286, "activity_lines": [ 27.203333, 27.43, 28.104762, 28.544946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.9, "volume": 48277, "typical_volume": 66008.25, "trend": 28.848333, "fair_value": 30.427743, "relative_strength": -36.973252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.865233, "energy": 50.302616, "activity_lines": [ 27.03, 27.294545, 27.937857, 28.414946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.950001, "volume": 112010, "typical_volume": 68286.95, "trend": 28.761667, "fair_value": 30.393703, "relative_strength": -34.595048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.280761, "energy": 68.097191, "activity_lines": [ 26.623333, 27.020909, 27.694524, 28.227957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0, "volume": 163560, "typical_volume": 76014.85, "trend": 28.648333, "fair_value": 30.346324, "relative_strength": -37.619209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.215779, "energy": 76.669382, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 26.616364, 27.378095, 27.985269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.65, "volume": 26088, "typical_volume": 76411.6, "trend": 28.551667, "fair_value": 30.308042, "relative_strength": -34.364742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.410277, "energy": 70.561442, "activity_lines": [ 25.78, 26.370909, 27.14381, 27.791828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.75, "volume": 36084, "typical_volume": 64715.65, "trend": 28.463333, "fair_value": 30.2762, "relative_strength": -34.902213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.750903, "energy": 67.117843, "activity_lines": [ 25.676667, 26.171818, 26.941191, 27.611075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.549999, "volume": 103134, "typical_volume": 63822.0, "trend": 28.403333, "fair_value": 30.255606, "relative_strength": -31.97486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.387283, "energy": 41.111416, "activity_lines": [ 26.243333, 26.338182, 26.928571, 27.552151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }