{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31198926-7023-453b-96a3-4583ee03e7b5", "symbol": "TRE", "name": "First Trust Alerian Disruptive Technology Real Estate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.924, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.954, "architecture_energy": 56.88, "architecture_maturity": 8.189, "architecture_confidence": 82.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.37, "rotation_up": 57.32, "upward_expansion": 79.81, "deceleration": 53.81, "rotation_down": 14.83, "downward_expansion": 11.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.394499, 22.263772, 22.136078, 21.903675 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.192499, "trend_reference": 21.601467, "distance_from_trend": 0.027361, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.194849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.480459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071454, "excess_performance": 0.020219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027361, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031406, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098919, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.07969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1193, "relative_activity": 1.172885, "balance": 4.07969, "dry_up": 0.539743, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023388, "annualized_volatility": 0.185931, "from_high_reference": -0.026645, "from_low_reference": 0.140123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.601467, "fair_value_reference": 20.194849, "structural_low": 19.834, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006445, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000326, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105354, "worst_return": -0.060283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004415, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031479, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.068041, "worst_return": -0.060432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016508, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103265, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.112514, "worst_return": -0.090791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.71824, "activity_lines": [ 21.922334, 21.970182, 21.832429, 21.627989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.719999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 919.15, "trend": 21.38805, "fair_value": 20.145276, "relative_strength": 2.347367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.955475, "energy": 45.173988, "activity_lines": [ 22.179166, 22.101955, 21.93841, 21.719443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.692499, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 919.05, "trend": 21.473383, "fair_value": 20.16225, "relative_strength": 1.038112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.956171, "energy": 62.044168, "activity_lines": [ 22.400999, 22.221954, 22.037831, 21.803601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.375, "volume": 1003, "typical_volume": 957.5, "trend": 21.542967, "fair_value": 20.178795, "relative_strength": -1.494283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.912144, "energy": 60.187121, "activity_lines": [ 22.435166, 22.262182, 22.099526, 21.86177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.192499, "volume": 1193, "typical_volume": 1017.15, "trend": 21.601467, "fair_value": 20.194849, "relative_strength": -2.480459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.953574, "energy": 56.880446, "activity_lines": [ 22.394499, 22.263772, 22.136078, 21.903675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }