{ "ticker": { "uuid": "311cd991-cf50-44d1-93fb-9e8e9d47e0fc", "symbol": "V3AA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) Accumulating", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.318, "architecture_energy": 47.736, "architecture_maturity": 47.202, "architecture_confidence": 79.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.92, "rotation_up": 45.18, "upward_expansion": 73.36, "deceleration": 90.5, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.701733, 8.685827, 8.605381, 8.427042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.9425, "trend_reference": 8.228417, "distance_from_trend": 0.086783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.684292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337838, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.746823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128534, "excess_performance": 0.077298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037468, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245896, "relative_activity": 1.023253, "balance": 1.524041, "dry_up": 0.913022, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024425, "annualized_volatility": 0.161673, "from_high_reference": -0.002843, "from_low_reference": 0.243741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.228417, "fair_value_reference": 6.684292, "structural_low": 7.242, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016103, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01135, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.043497, "worst_return": -0.037538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065857, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084692, "worst_return": 0.038995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.127871, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.128916, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153187, "worst_return": 0.10716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.18463, 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"2024-05-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.071399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13028, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.051644, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"direction": 65.749194, "energy": 56.42838, "activity_lines": [ 8.7106, 8.6801, 8.460733, 8.297319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.589, "volume": 217937, "typical_volume": 239226.7, "trend": 8.146333, "fair_value": 6.617131, "relative_strength": 2.608276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.628811, "energy": 49.786782, "activity_lines": [ 8.6753, 8.669991, 8.49544, 8.32769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5545, "volume": 275434, "typical_volume": 243561.7, "trend": 8.170717, "fair_value": 6.638103, "relative_strength": 0.88206, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.610229, "energy": 41.591788, "activity_lines": [ 8.631567, 8.652436, 8.5241, 8.354024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.5555, "volume": 138360, "typical_volume": 243405.35, "trend": 8.1955, "fair_value": 6.659676, "relative_strength": -0.371001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.00229, "energy": 31.972915, "activity_lines": [ 8.6011, 8.633618, 8.548719, 8.378848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9425, "volume": 245896, "typical_volume": 240308.2, "trend": 8.228417, "fair_value": 6.684292, "relative_strength": 3.746823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.3181, "energy": 47.736171, "activity_lines": [ 8.701733, 8.685827, 8.605381, 8.427042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }