{ "ticker": { "uuid": "311d3c27-2d01-4a26-882c-22486a05d38c", "symbol": "WMFS", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Small Cap ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.532, "architecture_energy": 60.884, "architecture_maturity": 81.591, "architecture_confidence": 65.938, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.79, "rotation_up": 50.31, "upward_expansion": 76.97, "deceleration": 71.41, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 14.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.791067, 11.780145, 11.585238, 11.345277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.978, "trend_reference": 11.065133, "distance_from_trend": 0.082499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.958078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.336032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13235, "excess_performance": 0.06771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05336, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13235, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.531244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107702, "relative_activity": 3.773053, "balance": 2.531244, "dry_up": 1.795802, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019382, "annualized_volatility": 0.116804, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.2938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.065133, "fair_value_reference": 9.958078, "structural_low": 9.933, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014945, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014909, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.035789, "worst_return": -0.005899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045566, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 9.974, "volume": 3663, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 9.989, "volume": 17140, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 9.942, "volume": 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76.198499, "activity_lines": [ 11.7824, 11.706145, 11.408905, 11.184877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.796, "volume": 45599, "typical_volume": 22489.1, "trend": 10.9602, "fair_value": 9.916625, "relative_strength": 9.440139, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.55293, "energy": 63.877375, "activity_lines": [ 11.7828, 11.7428, 11.474295, 11.242572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.586, "volume": 38276, "typical_volume": 23791.9, "trend": 11.011867, "fair_value": 9.935382, "relative_strength": 4.971153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.662723, "energy": 51.129333, "activity_lines": [ 11.712267, 11.728509, 11.514152, 11.282946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.978, "volume": 107702, "typical_volume": 28545.05, "trend": 11.065133, "fair_value": 9.958078, "relative_strength": 5.336032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.531828, "energy": 60.883516, "activity_lines": [ 11.791067, 11.780145, 11.585238, 11.345277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }