{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3130db73-401c-4a26-9440-15fa2fbf3bdb", "symbol": "ASUR", "name": "Asure Software Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.441, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.047, "architecture_energy": 18.524, "architecture_maturity": 25.588, "architecture_confidence": 62.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.16, "rotation_up": 22.82, "upward_expansion": 14.94, "deceleration": 59.89, "rotation_down": 38.58, "downward_expansion": 62.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.170667, 8.145636, 8.392762, 8.48886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.67, "trend_reference": 8.643, "distance_from_trend": 0.003124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.007244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.482818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026936, "excess_performance": -0.21439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 649244, "relative_activity": 1.368201, "balance": 0.781242, "dry_up": 1.096115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102518, "annualized_volatility": 0.478226, "from_high_reference": -0.15, "from_low_reference": 0.275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.643, "fair_value_reference": 9.007244, "structural_low": 6.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00062, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.01219, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.350376, "worst_return": -0.13467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016867, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.027395, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.632867, "worst_return": -0.263091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104819, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011513, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.650177, "worst_return": -0.277139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 7.66, "volume": 413000, "typical_volume": 466068.55, "trend": 8.704, "fair_value": 9.071346, "relative_strength": -18.040017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.118423, "energy": 53.454443, "activity_lines": [ 7.908667, 8.136364, 8.426667, 8.532258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.03, "volume": 666318, "typical_volume": 474123.7, "trend": 8.668667, "fair_value": 9.038333, "relative_strength": -14.128064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.130617, "energy": 38.829702, "activity_lines": [ 7.937333, 8.076909, 8.377048, 8.488774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.67, "volume": 649244, "typical_volume": 474523.95, "trend": 8.643, "fair_value": 9.007244, "relative_strength": -11.482818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.046937, "energy": 18.523584, "activity_lines": [ 8.170667, 8.145636, 8.392762, 8.48886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }