{ "ticker": { "uuid": "313c171e-27c5-429e-85bb-c643fab9a0ad", "symbol": "MTB", "name": "M&T Bank Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.848, "architecture_energy": 76.091, "architecture_maturity": 26.402, "architecture_confidence": 83.419, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 75.38, "upward_expansion": 92.03, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 12.88, "downward_expansion": 16.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 248.468667, 244.029636, 233.36837, 227.286052 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 250.45, "trend_reference": 221.632394, "distance_from_trend": 0.130024, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 171.938984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.155257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066967, "excess_performance": -0.058658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130024, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158252, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071553, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066967, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.100394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4729349, "relative_activity": 0.912151, "balance": 3.100394, "dry_up": 1.153614, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039548, "annualized_volatility": 0.237501, "from_high_reference": -0.017843, "from_low_reference": 0.464588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.632394, "fair_value_reference": 171.938984, "structural_low": 192.579959, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012025, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.002486, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.141944, "worst_return": -0.141992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001438, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.204882, "worst_return": -0.187418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113893, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.055919, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.216286, "worst_return": -0.286924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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80.253471, "energy": 87.342166, "activity_lines": [ 237.408, 230.212312, 222.068178, 219.30745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 249.24, "volume": 7367270, "typical_volume": 5346252.5, "trend": 217.234941, "fair_value": 169.563781, "relative_strength": 11.734308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.685695, "energy": 91.293178, "activity_lines": [ 242.122667, 234.832434, 225.209896, 221.471767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 249.6, "volume": 5968697, "typical_volume": 5351392.5, "trend": 218.740803, "fair_value": 170.35241, "relative_strength": 12.274325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.076597, "energy": 89.654476, "activity_lines": [ 245.8, 238.816318, 228.218044, 223.559835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 246.29, "volume": 5859854, "typical_volume": 5316502.55, "trend": 220.242844, "fair_value": 171.120864, "relative_strength": 9.321962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.158259, "energy": 82.143024, "activity_lines": [ 246.742, 241.359436, 230.717519, 225.337203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 250.45, "volume": 4729349, "typical_volume": 5184829.65, "trend": 221.632394, "fair_value": 171.938984, "relative_strength": 7.155257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.848277, "energy": 76.090687, "activity_lines": [ 248.468667, 244.029636, 233.36837, 227.286052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }