{ "ticker": { "uuid": "313e59ce-d075-444e-9763-c0aa7b8f9ba1", "symbol": "EGR", "name": "Transition Evergreen SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.261, "architecture_energy": 72.016, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.968, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.61, "rotation_up": 29.22, "upward_expansion": 17.54, "deceleration": 40.15, "rotation_down": 48.84, "downward_expansion": 88.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0616, 0.064509, 0.075955, 0.103345 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0625, "trend_reference": 0.155783, "distance_from_trend": -0.598802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.089087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.942612, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -74.681567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.810606, "excess_performance": -0.863917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.598802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.942612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.746816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053686, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.810606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.397145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169349, "relative_activity": 0.305512, "balance": 3.397145, "dry_up": 0.273209, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323077, "annualized_volatility": 2.172825, "from_high_reference": -0.810606, "from_low_reference": 0.755618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.155783, "fair_value_reference": 1.089087, "structural_low": 0.0356, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.028759, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.044215, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": -0.7025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.109155, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.11763, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.15415, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.212947, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.167237, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.035857, "worst_return": -0.652632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.82537, "energy": 75.550445, "activity_lines": [ 0.062633, 0.068073, 0.08205, 0.117141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.062, "volume": 120988, "typical_volume": 577125.3, "trend": 0.1647, "fair_value": 1.105481, "relative_strength": -74.882681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.432364, "energy": 73.742622, "activity_lines": [ 0.062, 0.065909, 0.078864, 0.109939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0625, "volume": 169349, "typical_volume": 554313.0, "trend": 0.155783, "fair_value": 1.089087, "relative_strength": -74.681567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.260671, "energy": 72.015627, "activity_lines": [ 0.0616, 0.064509, 0.075955, 0.103345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }