{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31418b6e-c756-4119-86d8-80c224217bc8", "symbol": "XUSIO", "name": "Usinas Sider\u00fargicas de Minas Gerais S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.653, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -49.728, "architecture_energy": 64.44, "architecture_maturity": 49.385, "architecture_confidence": 82.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.74, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 27.06, "deceleration": 50.92, "rotation_down": 76.72, "downward_expansion": 56.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.166667, 1.237273, 1.327762, 1.293323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.04, "trend_reference": 1.2305, "distance_from_trend": -0.154815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.075356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.006849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018868, "excess_performance": -0.143299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.629912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 277.92, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35, "relative_activity": 0.004133, "balance": 277.92, "dry_up": 0.008976, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110207, "annualized_volatility": 0.507288, "from_high_reference": -0.398844, "from_low_reference": 0.575758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2305, "fair_value_reference": 1.075356, "structural_low": 0.985, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018607, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.017037, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.205607, "worst_return": -0.202797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028486, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022804, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.252336, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062671, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.112796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.477273, "worst_return": -0.317142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225587, "worst_return": -0.075381, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117949, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.12426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", 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18.158591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.929617, "energy": 46.935072, "activity_lines": [ 1.463333, 1.495636, 1.382357, 1.290914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10097.85, "trend": 1.180833, "fair_value": 1.075722, "relative_strength": 5.625824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.189711, "energy": 30.707394, "activity_lines": [ 1.366667, 1.450545, 1.377857, 1.29486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.28, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 10092.7, "trend": 1.1945, "fair_value": 1.076334, "relative_strength": 11.994887, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.396325, "energy": 32.760652, "activity_lines": [ 1.313333, 1.415636, 1.376952, 1.301258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.22, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 9543.6, "trend": 1.206167, "fair_value": 1.076562, "relative_strength": 7.070309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.441182, "energy": 29.001242, "activity_lines": [ 1.266, 1.370909, 1.369095, 1.302903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.3, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 9512.7, "trend": 1.2215, "fair_value": 1.076921, "relative_strength": 11.184793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.264376, "energy": 27.263149, "activity_lines": [ 1.268, 1.345091, 1.368619, 1.308957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.17, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 8468.55, "trend": 1.230833, "fair_value": 1.076555, "relative_strength": -1.305106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.124914, "energy": 32.361783, "activity_lines": [ 1.233333, 1.299091, 1.354667, 1.305634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.04, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 8467.45, "trend": 1.2305, "fair_value": 1.075356, "relative_strength": -14.006849, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.72761, "energy": 64.440155, "activity_lines": [ 1.166667, 1.237273, 1.327762, 1.293323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }