{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31441180-1bf4-402d-bf0f-e905976fe954", "symbol": "000830", "name": "Luxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.471, "architecture_energy": 41.649, "architecture_maturity": 74.521, "architecture_confidence": 58.782, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.8, "rotation_up": 27.16, "upward_expansion": 18.6, "deceleration": 66.26, "rotation_down": 38.79, "downward_expansion": 66.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.461333, 12.411618, 13.07841, 14.063611 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.77, "trend_reference": 15.390144, "distance_from_trend": -0.170248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.065178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.433821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.346803, "excess_performance": -0.354203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164854012, "relative_activity": 1.140381, "balance": 0.894564, "dry_up": 1.072645, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087085, "annualized_volatility": 0.519176, "from_high_reference": -0.41422, "from_low_reference": 0.127096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.390144, "fair_value_reference": 12.065178, "structural_low": 11.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008048, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.232244, "worst_return": -0.077326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033784, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.053219, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.168899, "worst_return": -0.0226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.229785, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348436, "worst_return": 0.000788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.273275, 15.186411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.74, "volume": 163218465, "typical_volume": 162922449.75, "trend": 15.844144, "fair_value": 12.002085, "relative_strength": -28.422012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.715166, "energy": 76.258228, "activity_lines": [ 12.333581, 12.620874, 13.921874, 14.913778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.8, "volume": 129551087, "typical_volume": 162781461.45, "trend": 15.76081, "fair_value": 12.016705, "relative_strength": -20.857959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.688263, "energy": 63.001787, "activity_lines": [ 12.123067, 12.38343, 13.602186, 14.652865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.39, "volume": 185920085, "typical_volume": 158595967.4, "trend": 15.65581, "fair_value": 12.032333, "relative_strength": -17.208855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.880927, "energy": 56.893978, "activity_lines": [ 12.167333, 12.320127, 13.371499, 14.435393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.64, "volume": 139923248, "typical_volume": 150274351.25, "trend": 15.516811, "fair_value": 12.04783, "relative_strength": -14.111925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.511827, "energy": 52.585777, "activity_lines": [ 12.295333, 12.34571, 13.20186, 14.240825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.77, "volume": 164854012, "typical_volume": 144560470.15, "trend": 15.390144, "fair_value": 12.065178, "relative_strength": -17.433821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.471354, "energy": 41.649447, "activity_lines": [ 12.461333, 12.411618, 13.07841, 14.063611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }