{ "ticker": { "uuid": "314a8789-3127-47de-90f3-42a8b39cc8ad", "symbol": "ACKB", "name": "Ackermans & Van Haaren NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.997, "architecture_energy": 25.372, "architecture_maturity": 11.051, "architecture_confidence": 59.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.37, "rotation_up": 17.25, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 62.39, "rotation_down": 61.24, "downward_expansion": 38.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 268.320003, 272.421822, 273.935469, 272.785113 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 267.200012, "trend_reference": 269.050969, "distance_from_trend": -0.00688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 196.856591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.769387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031583, "excess_performance": -0.142664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034897, "annualized_volatility": 0.235309, "from_high_reference": -0.088803, "from_low_reference": 0.296368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 269.050969, "fair_value_reference": 196.856591, "structural_low": 245.449012, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033384, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.00039, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.142469, "worst_return": -0.022799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067843, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158333, "worst_return": -0.087397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087396, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.10017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29537, "worst_return": -0.012033, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.128113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048203, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.197764, "energy": 67.798636, "activity_lines": [ 283.493341, 279.675114, 276.396968, 271.780248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 268.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 263.722865, "fair_value": 193.787198, "relative_strength": -9.862114, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.360532, "energy": 37.133484, "activity_lines": [ 279.24001, 277.87656, 275.793667, 272.158626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 268.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 265.156589, "fair_value": 194.575089, "relative_strength": -7.946875, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.589078, "energy": 12.813982, "activity_lines": [ 275.026672, 276.24067, 275.268714, 272.460377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 265.799988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 266.503646, "fair_value": 195.31899, "relative_strength": -9.968539, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.894566, "energy": 14.194634, "activity_lines": [ 270.719999, 274.437091, 274.595701, 272.501886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 271.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 267.906365, "fair_value": 196.101286, "relative_strength": -7.834826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.574088, "energy": 20.593388, "activity_lines": [ 269.8, 273.847275, 274.490545, 272.830684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 267.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.85, "trend": 269.050969, "fair_value": 196.856591, "relative_strength": -11.769387, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.996892, "energy": 25.372252, "activity_lines": [ 268.320003, 272.421822, 273.935469, 272.785113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }