{ "ticker": { "uuid": "315aa32a-2f85-47b7-bec1-6c129a301dc5", "symbol": "DUG", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ENERGY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.36, "architecture_energy": 50.418, "architecture_maturity": 9.065, "architecture_confidence": 77.134, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 11.61, "upward_expansion": 9.56, "deceleration": 41.11, "rotation_down": 66.69, "downward_expansion": 78.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.698, 18.615805, 18.813262, 19.0157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.17, "trend_reference": 19.930108, "distance_from_trend": -0.088314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.598073, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.459195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.185297, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194202, "excess_performance": -0.319827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.459195, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 422082, "relative_activity": 0.71674, "balance": 0.670916, "dry_up": 0.588613, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102207, "annualized_volatility": 0.52652, "from_high_reference": -0.514664, "from_low_reference": 0.161022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.930108, "fair_value_reference": 33.598073, "structural_low": 15.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.012618, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.030399, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.296895, "worst_return": -0.34813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.141647, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.198319, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.185221, "worst_return": -0.447682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.208251, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.243506, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.243116, "worst_return": -0.448363, "sufficient": true 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.145295, "energy": 13.786569, "activity_lines": [ 19.749687, 19.608396, 19.251546, 19.681496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.95, "volume": 492665, "typical_volume": 622357.65, "trend": 20.777612, "fair_value": 33.877917, "relative_strength": -40.834584, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.765438, "energy": 29.665848, "activity_lines": [ 18.657333, 19.194069, 19.053215, 19.399935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.96, "volume": 273153, "typical_volume": 601865.8, "trend": 20.308036, "fair_value": 33.725433, "relative_strength": -40.376923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.219533, "energy": 47.068503, "activity_lines": [ 17.848667, 18.790779, 18.87032, 19.153638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.17, "volume": 422082, "typical_volume": 588891.7, "trend": 19.930108, "fair_value": 33.598073, "relative_strength": -37.185297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.36005, "energy": 50.417947, "activity_lines": [ 17.698, 18.615805, 18.813262, 19.0157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }