{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3163fb8c-924d-40b6-8824-543e784cce5a", "symbol": "PEB", "name": "Pebblebrook Hotel Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.988, "architecture_energy": 56.235, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.21, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 51.25, "upward_expansion": 83.47, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 28.36, "downward_expansion": 10.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.718, 18.709889, 17.493789, 16.344238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.18, "trend_reference": 14.924263, "distance_from_trend": 0.218151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.051948, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.557246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.46966, "excess_performance": 0.344035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.218151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.225572, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.46966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.401125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12240904, "relative_activity": 0.993993, "balance": 2.401125, "dry_up": 0.947344, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07024, "annualized_volatility": 0.302217, "from_high_reference": -0.087807, "from_low_reference": 0.960888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.924263, "fair_value_reference": 13.051948, "structural_low": 11.550854, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011491, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004416, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.249836, "worst_return": -0.097871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065232, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.334802, "worst_return": -0.198537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137242, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.284695, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.010976, "worst_return": -0.332476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.09, "volume": 10655309, "typical_volume": 12290479.1, "trend": 14.476633, "fair_value": 12.996745, "relative_strength": 37.208656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.767675, "energy": 66.331052, "activity_lines": [ 18.842679, 18.491367, 16.944132, 15.823286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1, "volume": 12743816, "typical_volume": 12267883.55, "trend": 14.728605, "fair_value": 13.02793, "relative_strength": 34.441705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.072933, "energy": 63.686029, "activity_lines": [ 18.935333, 18.723606, 17.280721, 16.121568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.18, "volume": 12240904, "typical_volume": 12314879.3, "trend": 14.924263, "fair_value": 13.051948, "relative_strength": 22.557246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.988019, "energy": 56.234785, "activity_lines": [ 18.718, 18.709889, 17.493789, 16.344238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }