{ "ticker": { "uuid": "317439c4-f08e-464c-8b25-7f57bf753c4e", "symbol": "AUEU", "name": "WisdomTree Short AUD Long EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.631, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.765, "architecture_energy": 58.36, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.16, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.31, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.66, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.159667, 32.149091, 32.205476, 32.432516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.16, "trend_reference": 32.921166, "distance_from_trend": -0.023121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.641633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.178923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078774, "excess_performance": -0.249666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 32.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 32.0, "dry_up": 2.424242, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0025, "annualized_volatility": 0.092152, "from_high_reference": -0.096629, "from_low_reference": 0.005314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.921166, "fair_value_reference": 33.641633, "structural_low": 31.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.006954, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 0.043822, "worst_return": -0.060011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034376, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.06059, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.07164, "worst_return": -0.060011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068814, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.162096, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.070423, "worst_return": -0.096181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001367, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019887, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023285, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 32.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 33.104499, "fair_value": 33.650031, "relative_strength": -17.330141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.021471, "energy": 61.180486, "activity_lines": [ 32.158, 32.126727, 32.250214, 32.548473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 33.012833, "fair_value": 33.648877, "relative_strength": -17.336968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.447741, "energy": 59.832171, "activity_lines": [ 32.159, 32.139454, 32.226285, 32.487537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 32.921166, "fair_value": 33.641633, "relative_strength": -19.178923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.7655, "energy": 58.359544, "activity_lines": [ 32.159667, 32.149091, 32.205476, 32.432516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }