{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31753049-66bb-4629-8057-c897bc836f25", "symbol": "AIRN", "name": "Airbus SE", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.265, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.235, "architecture_energy": 81.39, "architecture_maturity": 16.713, "architecture_confidence": 66.417, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.35, "rotation_up": 78.56, "upward_expansion": 69.67, "deceleration": 20.83, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 28.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4068.582032, 3879.2142, 3711.756665, 3707.951852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4094.560059, "trend_reference": 3777.590893, "distance_from_trend": 0.083908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3294.764539, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.760323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014382, "excess_performance": 0.040285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083908, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007603, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.242222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.242222, "dry_up": 0.659729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027537, "annualized_volatility": 0.435396, "from_high_reference": -0.103098, "from_low_reference": 0.220758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3777.590893, "fair_value_reference": 3294.764539, "structural_low": 3354.112549, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012461, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.11988, "worst_return": -0.009882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100843, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183609, "worst_return": 0.07346, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.118173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142328, "worst_return": 0.084556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3599.909993, 3536.813641, 3536.559083, 3635.939726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3964.669922, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 233.55, "trend": 3783.262768, "fair_value": 3264.155831, "relative_strength": -2.625736, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.653976, "energy": 39.582539, "activity_lines": [ 3745.813965, 3617.130535, 3570.884392, 3647.334836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4094.560059, "volume": 710, "typical_volume": 269.05, "trend": 3781.372143, "fair_value": 3274.358733, "relative_strength": 1.161424, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.233523, "energy": 61.283074, "activity_lines": [ 3898.538656, 3716.592183, 3618.020266, 3667.418532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4094.560059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 269.05, "trend": 3779.481518, "fair_value": 3284.561636, "relative_strength": 0.565205, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.801587, "energy": 77.700267, "activity_lines": [ 4006.128011, 3803.628374, 3664.97769, 3687.624204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4094.560059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 269.05, "trend": 3777.590893, "fair_value": 3294.764539, "relative_strength": 0.760323, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.234849, "energy": 81.390469, "activity_lines": [ 4068.582032, 3879.2142, 3711.756665, 3707.951852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }