{ "ticker": { "uuid": "317ee77b-31de-499e-a026-e71c5683f970", "symbol": "KOS", "name": "Kosmos Energy Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.267, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.881, "architecture_energy": 8.749, "architecture_maturity": 27.225, "architecture_confidence": 68.25, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.49, "rotation_up": 41.2, "upward_expansion": 27.52, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 23.92, "downward_expansion": 27.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.508667, 2.423636, 2.564238, 2.565204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.48, "trend_reference": 2.425333, "distance_from_trend": 0.02254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.761734, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.334892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.675676, "excess_performance": 0.550051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113349, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212465, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.675676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.221097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77517269, "relative_activity": 0.945681, "balance": 1.221097, "dry_up": 1.026744, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167801, "annualized_volatility": 0.802519, "from_high_reference": -0.257485, "from_low_reference": 1.966152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.425333, "fair_value_reference": 3.761734, "structural_low": 1.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021021, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.005756, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.283172, "worst_return": -0.251634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0342, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.033943, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.282178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126126, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.121934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415033, "worst_return": -0.371287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111513, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.820261, "worst_return": -0.439481, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.658805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.42, "volume": 17721758, "typical_volume": 24352707.9, "trend": 6.899, "fair_value": 4.726758, "relative_strength": 2.546742, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.384848, "energy": 45.770903, "activity_lines": [ 2.174667, 2.383636, 2.583095, 2.509906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.63, "volume": 68885420, "typical_volume": 98533786.85, "trend": 2.313873, "fair_value": 3.823337, "relative_strength": 24.267806, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.836569, "energy": 23.8461, "activity_lines": [ 2.315333, 2.393091, 2.580429, 2.534085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.69, "volume": 69656483, "typical_volume": 88775771.4, "trend": 2.37378, "fair_value": 3.793721, "relative_strength": 25.362872, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.011968, "energy": 13.566855, "activity_lines": [ 2.464, 2.424364, 2.58319, 2.558351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.48, "volume": 77517269, "typical_volume": 81969784.1, "trend": 2.425333, "fair_value": 3.761734, "relative_strength": 11.334892, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.88123, "energy": 8.74866, "activity_lines": [ 2.508667, 2.423636, 2.564238, 2.565204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }