{ "ticker": { "uuid": "318139fd-6d62-46e0-8363-a8927eaca4a6", "symbol": "Q5T", "name": "Far East Hospitality Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.36, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.081, "architecture_energy": 26.389, "architecture_maturity": 55.356, "architecture_confidence": 91.158, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.11, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 4.7, "deceleration": 53.75, "rotation_down": 47.05, "downward_expansion": 78.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.562143, 0.56285, 0.5661, 0.569436 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.56, "trend_reference": 0.576262, "distance_from_trend": -0.028219, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.556807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.310087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075322, "excess_performance": -0.230157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028219, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.325757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5645900, "relative_activity": 1.520441, "balance": 1.325757, "dry_up": 1.246327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029954, "annualized_volatility": 0.130441, "from_high_reference": -0.082719, "from_low_reference": 0.01981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.576262, "fair_value_reference": 0.556807, "structural_low": 0.549122, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008368, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.009519, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.071176, "worst_return": -0.096491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050419, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.014997, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.161191, "worst_return": -0.090144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16215, "worst_return": 0.010952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151482, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226713, "worst_return": 0.076251, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040001, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008773, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008334, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043103, "active": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.266421, "energy": 37.879723, "activity_lines": [ 0.562342, 0.564986, 0.568726, 0.573598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.558841, "volume": 5017300, "typical_volume": 4318505.0, "trend": 0.579112, "fair_value": 0.556015, "relative_strength": -18.031057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.628438, "energy": 48.609804, "activity_lines": [ 0.560434, 0.563451, 0.567602, 0.572221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.573419, "volume": 4277500, "typical_volume": 4166170.0, "trend": 0.57869, "fair_value": 0.556335, "relative_strength": -16.680049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.489042, "energy": 31.886363, "activity_lines": [ 0.563796, 0.564952, 0.568015, 0.571854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.558841, "volume": 3571400, "typical_volume": 3903445.0, "trend": 0.577619, "fair_value": 0.55654, "relative_strength": -18.929184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.078969, "energy": 29.373538, "activity_lines": [ 0.562404, 0.56374, 0.567, 0.570573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.56, "volume": 5645900, "typical_volume": 3713330.0, "trend": 0.576262, "fair_value": 0.556807, "relative_strength": -19.310087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.080646, "energy": 26.389319, "activity_lines": [ 0.562143, 0.56285, 0.5661, 0.569436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }