{ "ticker": { "uuid": "318be8f1-179f-421b-94f9-28b89f1e91db", "symbol": "SGG", "name": "Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.395, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.216, "architecture_energy": 31.545, "architecture_maturity": 60.239, "architecture_confidence": 74.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.07, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 43.45, "deceleration": 87.62, "rotation_down": 52.16, "downward_expansion": 37.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.05, 43.154546, 43.627381, 42.302258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.799999, "trend_reference": 40.82, "distance_from_trend": -0.024988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.298269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.397727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05992, "excess_performance": -0.001574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.471458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21599, "relative_activity": 0.681597, "balance": 1.471458, "dry_up": 0.648691, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071318, "annualized_volatility": 0.301813, "from_high_reference": -0.218075, "from_low_reference": 0.151954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.82, "fair_value_reference": 55.298269, "structural_low": 34.549999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015326, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014108, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.037736, "worst_return": -0.16521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.004724, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062785, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007663, "worst_return": -0.01711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.009578, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009578, "worst_return": -0.009578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055416, "active": false }, { 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55.942756, "relative_strength": -2.079703, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.577694, "energy": 27.886988, "activity_lines": [ 45.210001, 46.26, 44.039524, 42.386022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 29841, "typical_volume": 31590.85, "trend": 40.883334, "fair_value": 55.722885, "relative_strength": -8.366163, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.296977, "energy": 22.725897, "activity_lines": [ 43.490001, 45.231819, 43.942381, 42.379355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 13323, "typical_volume": 31401.25, "trend": 40.911667, "fair_value": 55.51391, "relative_strength": -9.010846, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.75255, "energy": 23.585659, "activity_lines": [ 42.223334, 44.26091, 43.842381, 42.373979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.799999, "volume": 21599, "typical_volume": 31688.8, "trend": 40.82, "fair_value": 55.298269, "relative_strength": -12.397727, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.216416, "energy": 31.54466, "activity_lines": [ 41.05, 43.154546, 43.627381, 42.302258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }