{ "ticker": { "uuid": "318d2247-2683-4967-a8c0-7de228aa58c3", "symbol": "CPNG", "name": "Coupang, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.042, "architecture_energy": 68.35, "architecture_maturity": 37.925, "architecture_confidence": 85.613, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.9, "rotation_up": 15.49, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 32.47, "rotation_down": 71.5, "downward_expansion": 87.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 283.36534, 294.007458, 299.620907, 307.49955 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 278.01001, "trend_reference": 317.386668, "distance_from_trend": -0.124065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 405.914872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.908908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082475, "excess_performance": -0.027808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082475, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.131593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13526, "relative_activity": 1.693597, "balance": 0.131593, "dry_up": 1.525001, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079399, "annualized_volatility": 0.459098, "from_high_reference": -0.557964, "from_low_reference": 0.057072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 317.386668, "fair_value_reference": 405.914872, "structural_low": 263.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.014336, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.333053, "worst_return": -0.262774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058177, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.489712, "worst_return": -0.294178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060777, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.403444, "worst_return": -0.385341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 330.0, "volume": 19299, "typical_volume": 5764.15, "trend": 336.046, "fair_value": 406.66891, "relative_strength": -26.282092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.248363, "energy": 21.224034, "activity_lines": [ 319.712665, 305.702545, 313.26419, 319.870495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 292.0, "volume": 8732, "typical_volume": 6170.2, "trend": 331.946, "fair_value": 406.55032, "relative_strength": -33.749461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.602855, "energy": 23.736491, "activity_lines": [ 312.619999, 304.611636, 310.547381, 317.028817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 271.01001, "volume": 19728, "typical_volume": 7105.35, "trend": 326.308001, "fair_value": 406.29718, "relative_strength": -37.144474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.838697, "energy": 30.832741, "activity_lines": [ 298.39667, 299.75891, 306.022001, 313.097463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 283.350006, "volume": 6732, "typical_volume": 7406.65, "trend": 321.819668, "fair_value": 406.123141, "relative_strength": -33.620137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.072857, "energy": 38.553905, "activity_lines": [ 291.119338, 297.390002, 302.957525, 310.325979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 278.01001, "volume": 13526, "typical_volume": 7986.55, "trend": 317.386668, "fair_value": 405.914872, "relative_strength": -33.908908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.042348, "energy": 68.35002, "activity_lines": [ 283.36534, 294.007458, 299.620907, 307.49955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }