{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31933ee0-85a5-4779-a10a-eba7ec2724c9", "symbol": "IMH", "name": "Intermedical Care and Lab Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.746, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.433, "architecture_energy": 16.61, "architecture_maturity": 24.758, "architecture_confidence": 66.25, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.56, "rotation_up": 17.9, "upward_expansion": 11.33, "deceleration": 58.54, "rotation_down": 46.63, "downward_expansion": 61.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.996, 3.011273, 2.999714, 3.00443 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.0, "trend_reference": 3.013333, "distance_from_trend": -0.004425, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.054936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.60049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059464, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056281, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.123015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142500, "relative_activity": 1.121562, "balance": 0.123015, "dry_up": 2.165007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042051, "annualized_volatility": 0.091189, "from_high_reference": -0.330357, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.013333, "fair_value_reference": 5.054936, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047442, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.117978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040323, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125149, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.013245, "worst_return": -0.108911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.222686, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.30598, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187946, "worst_return": -0.257426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.379738, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.379738, "worst_return": -0.379738, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.641818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096447, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.159341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032258, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.1, "volume": 232100, "typical_volume": 501450.0, "trend": 10.909717, "fair_value": 10.348387, "relative_strength": -26.871416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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2.993091, 3.000286, 3.00886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.08, "volume": 200000, "typical_volume": 115005.0, "trend": 3.025333, "fair_value": 5.198141, "relative_strength": -24.203758, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.872894, "energy": 24.477912, "activity_lines": [ 3.06, 3.011273, 3.007333, 3.012258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.0, "volume": 483200, "typical_volume": 136070.0, "trend": 3.021333, "fair_value": 5.157756, "relative_strength": -26.156456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.306253, "energy": 18.563451, "activity_lines": [ 3.050667, 3.013455, 3.006381, 3.010624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 354600, "typical_volume": 143660.0, "trend": 3.018667, "fair_value": 5.122692, "relative_strength": -26.049059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.751784, "energy": 8.606208, "activity_lines": [ 3.028, 3.012, 3.003524, 3.007957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.98, "volume": 120000, "typical_volume": 127860.0, "trend": 3.016, "fair_value": 5.087949, "relative_strength": -24.403153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.819836, "energy": 12.301906, "activity_lines": [ 3.005333, 3.010182, 3.000571, 3.005462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0, "volume": 142500, "typical_volume": 127055.0, "trend": 3.013333, "fair_value": 5.054936, "relative_strength": -22.60049, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.433495, "energy": 16.609781, "activity_lines": [ 2.996, 3.011273, 2.999714, 3.00443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }