{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3197cb27-9ace-4939-8548-aa51557aaaef", "symbol": "3440", "name": "Global X Exchange Traded Funds Series OFC - Global X US Treasury 0-3 Month ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.522, "architecture_energy": 61.411, "architecture_maturity": 40.894, "architecture_confidence": 88.509, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 60.35, "upward_expansion": 86.73, "deceleration": 64.18, "rotation_down": 24.58, "downward_expansion": 11.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.337332, 55.270181, 54.258074, 53.865538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 55.459999, "trend_reference": 53.204562, "distance_from_trend": 0.042392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.323033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.377637, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086682, "excess_performance": 0.120264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171950, "relative_activity": 1.174763, "balance": 0.902999, "dry_up": 1.172713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01308, "annualized_volatility": 0.1864, "from_high_reference": -0.012464, "from_low_reference": 0.286755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.204562, "fair_value_reference": 46.323033, "structural_low": 50.84505, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004724, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.096343, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004724, "worst_return": 0.004724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"direction": 67.457068, "energy": 85.665311, "activity_lines": [ 55.195999, 54.735261, 53.758804, 53.385961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.299999, "volume": 243950, "typical_volume": 144727.5, "trend": 52.889638, "fair_value": 46.106915, "relative_strength": 13.002972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.905872, "energy": 80.182798, "activity_lines": [ 55.231999, 54.977097, 53.918116, 53.551868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.34, "volume": 101050, "typical_volume": 143110.0, "trend": 53.048484, "fair_value": 46.215539, "relative_strength": 8.666721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.83583, "energy": 61.763669, "activity_lines": [ 55.274666, 55.148897, 54.082, 53.709956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.459999, "volume": 171950, "typical_volume": 146370.0, "trend": 53.204562, "fair_value": 46.323033, "relative_strength": 9.377637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.522248, "energy": 61.410901, "activity_lines": [ 55.337332, 55.270181, 54.258074, 53.865538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }