{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3198b1cd-68af-4da0-b893-ebb210b864a7", "symbol": "VEUA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF EUR Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.226, "architecture_energy": 61.719, "architecture_maturity": 29.208, "architecture_confidence": 87.323, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 60.78, "upward_expansion": 83.39, "deceleration": 53.87, "rotation_down": 22.16, "downward_expansion": 10.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.683999, 51.41109, 50.695286, 50.055253 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.619999, "trend_reference": 49.398083, "distance_from_trend": 0.065224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.04226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282093, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.060165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079053, "excess_performance": 0.027817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053544, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.727399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195499, "relative_activity": 1.036199, "balance": 2.727399, "dry_up": 0.956406, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020526, "annualized_volatility": 0.153522, "from_high_reference": -0.008853, "from_low_reference": 0.236227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.398083, "fair_value_reference": 41.04226, "structural_low": 44.169998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007202, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": 0.002412, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.100804, "worst_return": -0.095105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014074, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.005653, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.085, "worst_return": -0.04323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069695, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.010166, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.137774, "worst_return": -0.109311, "sufficient": true }, { 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40.806987, "relative_strength": 0.810146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.015613, "energy": 46.993867, "activity_lines": [ 51.048667, 50.929636, 50.184536, 49.674296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.634998, "volume": 175207, "typical_volume": 195815.9, "trend": 49.24825, "fair_value": 40.92141, "relative_strength": 0.500743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.674429, "energy": 46.655938, "activity_lines": [ 51.225666, 51.096272, 50.403964, 49.83772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.619999, "volume": 195499, "typical_volume": 188669.3, "trend": 49.398083, "fair_value": 41.04226, "relative_strength": 2.060165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.226273, "energy": 61.719203, "activity_lines": [ 51.683999, 51.41109, 50.695286, 50.055253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }