{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31a02031-2a7c-4860-ac66-3df7eca3b186", "symbol": "GCC", "name": "GCC, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.075, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.089, "architecture_energy": 8.126, "architecture_maturity": 12.529, "architecture_confidence": 77.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.63, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 46.66, "deceleration": 81.5, "rotation_down": 31.07, "downward_expansion": 26.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 201.877999, 204.058182, 204.543737, 201.955668 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 198.929993, "trend_reference": 198.85214, "distance_from_trend": 0.000392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 179.257379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.305046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005316, "excess_performance": 0.059983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03305, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522661, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1384684, "relative_activity": 1.395926, "balance": 0.522661, "dry_up": 1.020155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05506, "annualized_volatility": 0.250767, "from_high_reference": -0.100719, "from_low_reference": 0.326545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 198.85214, "fair_value_reference": 179.257379, "structural_low": 171.364175, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.001481, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.002138, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.108776, "worst_return": -0.152256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034471, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008858, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.216646, "worst_return": -0.144665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002802, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309447, "worst_return": -0.082066, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 199.559998, "volume": 954789, "typical_volume": 1012068.9, "trend": 198.335064, "fair_value": 178.981456, "relative_strength": 3.597814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.578879, "energy": 12.599043, "activity_lines": [ 203.843335, 205.323456, 204.79253, 201.917286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.929993, "volume": 1384684, "typical_volume": 991946.85, "trend": 198.85214, "fair_value": 179.257379, "relative_strength": 3.305046, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.08949, "energy": 8.125769, "activity_lines": [ 201.877999, 204.058182, 204.543737, 201.955668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }