{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31a2d767-cb97-4e04-a8f4-b77de89cb833", "symbol": "300455", "name": "Beijing Aerospace Shenzhou Intelligent Equipment Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.199, "architecture_energy": 76.947, "architecture_maturity": 36.398, "architecture_confidence": 86.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 9.5, "upward_expansion": 17.95, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 71.11, "downward_expansion": 88.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.45, 19.726182, 21.611429, 22.681269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.49, "trend_reference": 24.515, "distance_from_trend": -0.204977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.917467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.142373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289982, "excess_performance": -0.297382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073857, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.695843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38187977, "relative_activity": 0.787253, "balance": 0.544419, "dry_up": 0.887679, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137112, "annualized_volatility": 0.584097, "from_high_reference": -0.530361, "from_low_reference": 0.400144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.515, "fair_value_reference": 15.917467, "structural_low": 16.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.044974, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.02449, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.214823, "worst_return": -0.21153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104884, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.106342, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.348299, "worst_return": -0.018331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.389289, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.30883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.68357, "worst_return": -0.012234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 25.971667, "fair_value": 15.771928, "relative_strength": -8.86366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.117181, "energy": 39.0715, "activity_lines": [ 22.569333, 22.913091, 23.811, 24.643742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.219999, "volume": 60649897, "typical_volume": 53612890.5, "trend": 25.654333, "fair_value": 15.809189, "relative_strength": -25.382929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.891049, "energy": 60.857037, "activity_lines": [ 20.760666, 21.729273, 23.136667, 24.079118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 39773513, "typical_volume": 50410663.8, "trend": 25.295667, "fair_value": 15.846286, "relative_strength": -27.148688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.68483, "energy": 75.130681, "activity_lines": [ 19.269333, 20.695818, 22.478857, 23.513032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.780001, "volume": 33626364, "typical_volume": 49089127.55, "trend": 24.866667, "fair_value": 15.870609, "relative_strength": -22.18956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.412007, "energy": 78.308396, "activity_lines": [ 18.455333, 19.991273, 21.948571, 23.02815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.49, "volume": 38187977, "typical_volume": 48507873.45, "trend": 24.515, "fair_value": 15.917467, "relative_strength": -19.142373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.19933, "energy": 76.946946, "activity_lines": [ 18.45, 19.726182, 21.611429, 22.681269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }