{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31a9ddf5-bdc7-4a61-8a2c-1e4ec75111be", "symbol": "SXLC", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Communication Services Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.376, "architecture_energy": 37.559, "architecture_maturity": 8.127, "architecture_confidence": 85.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.23, "rotation_up": 15.55, "upward_expansion": 4.07, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 54.86, "downward_expansion": 75.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.005668, 52.160364, 53.263441, 53.429393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.150002, "trend_reference": 53.53325, "distance_from_trend": -0.007159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.57484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.334786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000753, "excess_performance": -0.050482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000753, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141942, "relative_activity": 1.066385, "balance": 0.861578, "dry_up": 1.458077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035929, "annualized_volatility": 0.179864, "from_high_reference": -0.072911, "from_low_reference": 0.095709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.53325, "fair_value_reference": 42.57484, "structural_low": 49.560001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.003097, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.022875, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.087791, "worst_return": -0.11843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071906, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.085088, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.163588, "worst_return": -0.201863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098789, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.143799, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.353682, "worst_return": -0.283901, "sufficient": 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53.712083, "fair_value": 41.994599, "relative_strength": -4.521646, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.743366, "energy": 46.763556, "activity_lines": [ 52.555667, 53.393, 54.018131, 53.899823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.290001, "volume": 73587, "typical_volume": 106030.35, "trend": 53.691083, "fair_value": 42.14641, "relative_strength": -6.766616, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.241897, "energy": 47.637122, "activity_lines": [ 52.439667, 53.03291, 53.858738, 53.808075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.625, "volume": 57816, "typical_volume": 106744.3, "trend": 53.60225, "fair_value": 42.27976, "relative_strength": -10.704568, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.532155, "energy": 48.743836, "activity_lines": [ 51.849667, 52.452728, 53.548369, 53.610263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.200001, "volume": 502969, "typical_volume": 130383.65, "trend": 53.55125, "fair_value": 42.42008, "relative_strength": -10.616058, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.598395, "energy": 50.474283, "activity_lines": [ 51.605334, 52.084182, 53.308548, 53.45528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.150002, "volume": 141942, "typical_volume": 133105.8, "trend": 53.53325, "fair_value": 42.57484, "relative_strength": -7.334786, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.376393, "energy": 37.558655, "activity_lines": [ 52.005668, 52.160364, 53.263441, 53.429393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }