{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31ac43e1-3a03-4afa-ac5c-ec896d9c2e67", "symbol": "RWT", "name": "Redwood Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.266, "architecture_energy": 40.057, "architecture_maturity": 40.672, "architecture_confidence": 89.287, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.45, "rotation_up": 23.6, "upward_expansion": 5.3, "deceleration": 56.74, "rotation_down": 49.59, "downward_expansion": 78.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 4.837283, 4.99863, 5.154692 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.73, "trend_reference": 5.348576, "distance_from_trend": -0.115652, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.398847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.184258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135875, "excess_performance": -0.2615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115652, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8219192, "relative_activity": 0.818624, "balance": 1.087506, "dry_up": 1.021051, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076689, "annualized_volatility": 0.423125, "from_high_reference": -0.298286, "from_low_reference": 0.128878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.348576, "fair_value_reference": 5.398847, "structural_low": 4.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.032428, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.001467, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.217544, "worst_return": -0.275078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014595, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.401341, "worst_return": -0.177024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013826, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.008355, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.279617, "worst_return": -0.177441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.323737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.1, "volume": 54883602, "typical_volume": 9771554.05, "trend": 5.428784, "fair_value": 5.416792, "relative_strength": -14.667018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.505817, "energy": 57.237543, "activity_lines": [ 4.857224, 4.948935, 5.163577, 5.302216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.12, "volume": 9201150, "typical_volume": 9838475.95, "trend": 5.418727, "fair_value": 5.417256, "relative_strength": -12.577687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.269796, "energy": 42.560472, "activity_lines": [ 4.935591, 4.966417, 5.143477, 5.282295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.92, "volume": 7320699, "typical_volume": 9744619.9, "trend": 5.404459, "fair_value": 5.413446, "relative_strength": -15.07262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.994812, "energy": 38.601799, "activity_lines": [ 4.943333, 4.952064, 5.107809, 5.250119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.57, "volume": 16265416, "typical_volume": 10223390.85, "trend": 5.374657, "fair_value": 5.405871, "relative_strength": -21.595195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.320851, "energy": 40.180878, "activity_lines": [ 4.838, 4.875405, 5.043057, 5.196283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.73, "volume": 8219192, "typical_volume": 10040254.65, "trend": 5.348576, "fair_value": 5.398847, "relative_strength": -21.184258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.265966, "energy": 40.056631, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 4.837283, 4.99863, 5.154692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }