{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31affb01-438c-4e20-89a6-f2ad6e4f14ec", "symbol": "RNV", "name": "RENERVE FPO [RNV]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.407, "architecture_energy": 50.567, "architecture_maturity": 55.661, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.03, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 7.54, "deceleration": 52.48, "rotation_down": 44.85, "downward_expansion": 76.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.078733, 0.079182, 0.082629, 0.087348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.074, "trend_reference": 0.093483, "distance_from_trend": -0.208415, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.111112, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.179993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327273, "excess_performance": -0.390978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208415, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237778, "relative_activity": 0.614847, "balance": 0.26759, "dry_up": 0.561002, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0842, "annualized_volatility": 0.452004, "from_high_reference": -0.663636, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.093483, "fair_value_reference": 0.111112, "structural_low": 0.074, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.044071, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023873, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": 0.025641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 0.17, "volume": 5759624, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 0.17, "volume": 2214652, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 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0.111839, "relative_strength": -23.974799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.264328, "energy": 53.800704, "activity_lines": [ 0.078733, 0.079309, 0.084395, 0.08934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 307487, "typical_volume": 428115.5, "trend": 0.094517, "fair_value": 0.111534, "relative_strength": -17.782721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.934707, "energy": 37.595198, "activity_lines": [ 0.080867, 0.080291, 0.083988, 0.088672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.074, "volume": 237778, "typical_volume": 386727.3, "trend": 0.093483, "fair_value": 0.111112, "relative_strength": -30.179993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.407306, "energy": 50.566705, "activity_lines": [ 0.078733, 0.079182, 0.082629, 0.087348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }