{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31b578de-1584-451a-b954-2560df18c855", "symbol": "FLC", "name": "Fluence Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.846, "architecture_energy": 27.573, "architecture_maturity": 39.474, "architecture_confidence": 90.642, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.12, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 13.52, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 45.32, "downward_expansion": 68.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0788, 0.079236, 0.081674, 0.082227 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.073, "trend_reference": 0.083583, "distance_from_trend": -0.12662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.094389, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.730307, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188889, "excess_performance": -0.252595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.172477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2331835, "relative_activity": 2.942151, "balance": 1.172477, "dry_up": 1.126752, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126976, "annualized_volatility": 0.54516, "from_high_reference": -0.505085, "from_low_reference": 0.377358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.083583, "fair_value_reference": 0.094389, "structural_low": 0.068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.070588, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.056787, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.075949, "worst_return": -0.371525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.119049, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027023, "worst_return": -0.240305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08108, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139542, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.634783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.413793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.280488, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.141176, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.13602, "volume": 2532130, "typical_volume": 1118508.55, "trend": 0.158982, "fair_value": 0.178815, "relative_strength": -17.930315, 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"typical_volume": 1676463.95, "trend": 0.086117, "fair_value": 0.095832, "relative_strength": 1.576143, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.654557, "energy": 44.202672, "activity_lines": [ 0.078667, 0.081464, 0.082893, 0.083659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.084, "volume": 206783, "typical_volume": 858785.5, "trend": 0.085583, "fair_value": 0.095471, "relative_strength": -0.023865, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.615681, "energy": 35.441548, "activity_lines": [ 0.0806, 0.081673, 0.083014, 0.083523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.084, "volume": 367757, "typical_volume": 765439.95, "trend": 0.085117, "fair_value": 0.095165, "relative_strength": -0.347474, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.898469, "energy": 11.429382, "activity_lines": [ 0.0822, 0.081827, 0.083126, 0.08342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.078, "volume": 665704, "typical_volume": 762356.75, "trend": 0.084383, "fair_value": 0.094822, "relative_strength": -10.077665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.656847, "energy": 18.016732, "activity_lines": [ 0.081533, 0.080909, 0.082633, 0.082961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.073, "volume": 2331835, "typical_volume": 792561.3, "trend": 0.083583, "fair_value": 0.094389, "relative_strength": -18.730307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.845802, "energy": 27.572705, "activity_lines": [ 0.0788, 0.079236, 0.081674, 0.082227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }