{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31b822e5-8d84-4394-a42b-d130c5be1d4f", "symbol": "M1GU", "name": "Alpha Integrated Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.329, "architecture_energy": 61.875, "architecture_maturity": 7.098, "architecture_confidence": 65.345, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.52, "rotation_up": 70.5, "upward_expansion": 85.47, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 9.06, "downward_expansion": 12.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.493701, 0.486297, 0.483627, 0.480796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.495, "trend_reference": 0.476544, "distance_from_trend": 0.038729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.368987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.449869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070838, "excess_performance": -0.083998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.130071, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1390400, "relative_activity": 1.555405, "balance": 2.130071, "dry_up": 2.096928, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031046, "annualized_volatility": 0.150845, "from_high_reference": -0.019219, "from_low_reference": 0.285007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.476544, "fair_value_reference": 0.368987, "structural_low": 0.445, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.008525, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.004036, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.10345, "worst_return": -0.077904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028169, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.030939, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.066665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04854, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031354, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.333334, "worst_return": -0.07152, "sufficient": true }, 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-8.627874, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.132007, "energy": 21.383749, "activity_lines": [ 0.471869, 0.475468, 0.477101, 0.47531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.495087, "volume": 1387000, "typical_volume": 871195.0, "trend": 0.473273, "fair_value": 0.365885, "relative_strength": -6.581533, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.846894, "energy": 22.428318, "activity_lines": [ 0.479328, 0.478511, 0.478902, 0.476819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.499893, "volume": 2922900, "typical_volume": 876735.0, "trend": 0.474528, "fair_value": 0.366915, "relative_strength": -6.955294, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.968773, "energy": 51.181402, "activity_lines": [ 0.487716, 0.482243, 0.481089, 0.478537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 1797600, "typical_volume": 900830.0, "trend": 0.475452, "fair_value": 0.367909, "relative_strength": -9.323377, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.483208, "energy": 52.326384, "activity_lines": [ 0.491148, 0.483906, 0.482167, 0.479535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.495, "volume": 1390400, "typical_volume": 893915.0, "trend": 0.476544, "fair_value": 0.368987, "relative_strength": -9.449869, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.328809, "energy": 61.874775, "activity_lines": [ 0.493701, 0.486297, 0.483627, 0.480796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }