{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31ba075a-44c2-4c23-8136-424e13aac354", "symbol": "900909", "name": "Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.015, "architecture_energy": 35.732, "architecture_maturity": 45.901, "architecture_confidence": 66.99, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.63, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 11.73, "deceleration": 62.68, "rotation_down": 41.6, "downward_expansion": 70.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.487222, 0.48658, 0.492686, 0.503794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.51763, "distance_from_trend": -0.03406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.467227, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.188981, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103943, "excess_performance": -0.060739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017655, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3035898, "relative_activity": 1.82866, "balance": 0.675576, "dry_up": 1.320891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032801, "annualized_volatility": 0.178624, "from_high_reference": -0.146758, "from_low_reference": 0.073157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.51763, "fair_value_reference": 0.467227, "structural_low": 0.465915, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.004929, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.010161, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.122701, "worst_return": -0.137501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043417, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059897, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.127645, "worst_return": -0.167029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019072, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117674, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136248, "worst_return": -0.256822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.409689, "energy": 46.964233, "activity_lines": [ 0.488077, 0.489353, 0.502542, 0.512754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.477539, "volume": 1074875, "typical_volume": 1850014.8, "trend": 0.519533, "fair_value": 0.465329, "relative_strength": -5.09701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.325919, "energy": 52.091135, "activity_lines": [ 0.484027, 0.486552, 0.498825, 0.509996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.46979, "volume": 2630625, "typical_volume": 1782174.4, "trend": 0.518493, "fair_value": 0.465932, "relative_strength": -7.516901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.840593, "energy": 57.661207, "activity_lines": [ 0.478357, 0.482968, 0.494757, 0.506787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.490131, "volume": 2030253, "typical_volume": 1664822.05, "trend": 0.51803, "fair_value": 0.466577, "relative_strength": -3.695002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.417758, "energy": 48.355011, "activity_lines": [ 0.481349, 0.483742, 0.493076, 0.504957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 3035898, "typical_volume": 1660176.5, "trend": 0.51763, "fair_value": 0.467227, "relative_strength": -4.188981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.01529, "energy": 35.731623, "activity_lines": [ 0.487222, 0.48658, 0.492686, 0.503794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }