{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31bb4251-ef9f-4ae4-a72d-23aa8becf441", "symbol": "LPE", "name": "Locality Planning Energy Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.908, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.613, "architecture_energy": 11.86, "architecture_maturity": 98.439, "architecture_confidence": 42.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.25, "rotation_up": 33.05, "upward_expansion": 20.54, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 17.2, "downward_expansion": 54.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.085067, 0.081673, 0.083712, 0.08673 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.096, "trend_reference": 0.091583, "distance_from_trend": 0.048226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.098766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.342274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127273, "excess_performance": -0.190978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.886922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133191, "relative_activity": 1.17154, "balance": 2.886922, "dry_up": 2.041234, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089744, "annualized_volatility": 0.659312, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 0.454545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.091583, "fair_value_reference": 0.098766, "structural_low": 0.066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.009615, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000681, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.372727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.072123, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 2.428571, "worst_return": -0.367857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.190909, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.185975, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.571429, "worst_return": -0.521622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.233977, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.294136, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.675676, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.288889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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0.098054, "relative_strength": -29.60289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.960315, "energy": 54.586507, "activity_lines": [ 0.076733, 0.077782, 0.083833, 0.087946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.084, "volume": 628323, "typical_volume": 113548.9, "trend": 0.09305, "fair_value": 0.098272, "relative_strength": -17.135395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.064354, "energy": 34.338887, "activity_lines": [ 0.078867, 0.078473, 0.083488, 0.087317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 41620, "typical_volume": 110220.9, "trend": 0.09205, "fair_value": 0.098465, "relative_strength": -22.390017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.080723, "energy": 32.795726, "activity_lines": [ 0.079467, 0.078527, 0.08281, 0.086475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.096, "volume": 133191, "typical_volume": 113688.8, "trend": 0.091583, "fair_value": 0.098766, "relative_strength": -9.342274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.612842, "energy": 11.859977, "activity_lines": [ 0.085067, 0.081673, 0.083712, 0.08673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }