{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31c07c1f-849d-4499-92e9-005f3defca98", "symbol": "GSP", "name": "Gas Plus S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.478, "architecture_energy": 24.976, "architecture_maturity": 76.748, "architecture_confidence": 75.748, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.22, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 15.59, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 24.52, "downward_expansion": 58.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.710715, 5.656379, 5.765631, 5.93287 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.83, "trend_reference": 6.150606, "distance_from_trend": -0.052126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.846945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.515488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.632829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11128, "excess_performance": -0.282172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.515488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478902, "relative_activity": 0.912277, "balance": 0.966532, "dry_up": 1.136839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050774, "annualized_volatility": 0.299356, "from_high_reference": -0.265743, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.150606, "fair_value_reference": 3.846945, "structural_low": 5.214087, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016592, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.006892, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.192661, "worst_return": -0.088666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071093, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047387, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.195349, "worst_return": -0.089495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028736, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132397, "worst_return": 0.057869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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5.62937, 5.850558, 6.021847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.77, "volume": 920538, "typical_volume": 593635.35, "trend": 6.211939, "fair_value": 3.803754, "relative_strength": -18.467771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.192635, "energy": 46.538344, "activity_lines": [ 5.606421, 5.639767, 5.820233, 5.991292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 520182, "typical_volume": 579873.6, "trend": 6.173606, "fair_value": 3.824743, "relative_strength": -20.732686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.008386, "energy": 35.202029, "activity_lines": [ 5.640543, 5.629618, 5.782337, 5.955038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.83, "volume": 478902, "typical_volume": 524952.5, "trend": 6.150606, "fair_value": 3.846945, "relative_strength": -20.632829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.478236, "energy": 24.976367, "activity_lines": [ 5.710715, 5.656379, 5.765631, 5.93287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }