{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31c24033-052d-410b-86ba-a577747db270", "symbol": "RCE", "name": "Recce Pharmaceuticals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.439, "architecture_energy": 77.735, "architecture_maturity": 31.292, "architecture_confidence": 95.482, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 15.33, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 38.93, "rotation_down": 71.0, "downward_expansion": 94.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.372, 0.388364, 0.431524, 0.455237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.494167, "distance_from_trend": -0.241147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.472115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.846715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342105, "excess_performance": -0.405811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234488, "relative_activity": 0.519327, "balance": 0.314795, "dry_up": 1.558425, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109744, "annualized_volatility": 0.578625, "from_high_reference": -0.486301, "from_low_reference": 0.079137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.494167, "fair_value_reference": 0.472115, "structural_low": 0.3475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.030694, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.271428, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003373, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.004073, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.198758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.724576, "energy": 89.605295, "activity_lines": [ 0.375, 0.411727, 0.449833, 0.47278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 290979, "typical_volume": 473073.0, "trend": 0.5035, "fair_value": 0.474218, "relative_strength": -25.570353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.266109, "energy": 84.915406, "activity_lines": [ 0.371667, 0.398636, 0.44019, 0.463527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 234488, "typical_volume": 451523.25, "trend": 0.494167, "fair_value": 0.472115, "relative_strength": -26.846715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.438783, "energy": 77.735446, "activity_lines": [ 0.372, 0.388364, 0.431524, 0.455237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }