{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31c24584-7a8c-4833-b2c5-7a0f1a0beeba", "symbol": "603637", "name": "Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.3, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.035, "architecture_energy": 62.383, "architecture_maturity": 10.947, "architecture_confidence": 66.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.04, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 28.7, "deceleration": 49.3, "rotation_down": 73.17, "downward_expansion": 58.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.156, 13.536334, 15.17622, 14.981998 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.19, "trend_reference": 14.444209, "distance_from_trend": -0.086831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.639131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.57161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068016, "excess_performance": 0.11122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.683623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015716, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068016, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.279543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41233440, "relative_activity": 0.894597, "balance": 1.279543, "dry_up": 0.868768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170018, "annualized_volatility": 0.689972, "from_high_reference": -0.383029, "from_low_reference": 0.328298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.444209, "fair_value_reference": 9.639131, "structural_low": 9.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059259, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040072, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.540166, "worst_return": 0.006116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.180706, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.113041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270083, "worst_return": -0.001235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094393, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.156981, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.677647, "worst_return": -0.085994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.272684, 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45268541.25, "trend": 14.339209, "fair_value": 9.566631, "relative_strength": -3.432928, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.191609, "energy": 38.953617, "activity_lines": [ 14.2322, 15.937916, 16.199595, 15.463716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.72, "volume": 44441278, "typical_volume": 45634632.3, "trend": 14.340542, "fair_value": 9.583818, "relative_strength": -14.684404, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.781713, "energy": 50.078431, "activity_lines": [ 12.657333, 14.812561, 15.741994, 15.230218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.67, "volume": 37063444, "typical_volume": 45745738.45, "trend": 14.366876, "fair_value": 9.606664, "relative_strength": -7.52002, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.458284, "energy": 65.469024, "activity_lines": [ 11.926, 13.977579, 15.385202, 15.057925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.19, "volume": 41233440, "typical_volume": 46091636.85, "trend": 14.444209, "fair_value": 9.639131, "relative_strength": 1.57161, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.035103, "energy": 62.38258, "activity_lines": [ 12.156, 13.536334, 15.17622, 14.981998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }